Xu thế toàn cầu và giải pháp phát triển đất nước giai đoạn 2010 - 2025

D D D D NGHIEN ClilU - TRAO DOI XU THf TOAN CAU VA GIAI PHAP PHAT TRI^N DAT Mdc GIAI DOAN 2010-2025 N g u y e n Van Lang* 1. Kinh te the gidi va nhufng van de toan cau d giai doan dau thien nien ky mdi Tii nvia sau cua the ky XX nhan loai da chijtng kien nhiing bien dong to 16n tren quy mo toan cau vdi nhiing cuoc chay dua vii trang, dich chuyen chinh tri xa hoi va nhiing canh tranh kinh te khong bien gi6i. Tren thiic te, xa hoi loai ngiidi dang thay doi ve cha't de chuyen sang mot nen van minh m6i cua Thdi dai tri tue, ma nguyen nhan va dong liic chinh la cuoc each mang khoa hoc cong nghe hien dai. Bu6c qua do sang Thien nien ky mdi da danh dau sii ket thiic ciia thdi dai lay chay dua vii trang toan cau la chinh va md ra thdi dai lay chay dua va canh tranh kinh te, xen lan hdp tac va phat trien lam muc tieu song con cua moi dan toe. Cuoc chien tranh lanh chiem linh tron ven toan bo tu duy chinh tri va va kinh te ciia nhan loai hdn 40 nam qua, gid day dang diidc thay the bcii mot cuoc "Chien tranh kinh te*' vdi phiidng cham "Hoi nhap, Hdp tac va Canh tranh". Chien tranh lanh ket thiic, tuy khong md ra ky nguyen mdi hoa binh va thinh viidng nhii nhan loai mong ddi nhifng da tao thuan ldi cho xu the hoa diu, hoa hoan trong quan he giiia cac quoc gia; tao tien de da ciic hoa trong xu the da dang hoa, da phiidng hda, hoi nhap khu viic va quoc te. Trong dd, moi quoc gia va vung lanh tho deu cvmg ton tai, ciing canh tranh va hdp tac. Giai doan ngay nay, khoa hoc va cong nghe diidc khSng dinh la dong lUc phat trien va tang triidng kinh te cua cac quoc gia va moi nen kinh te. Cach mang cong nghe hien dai da gdp phan dang ke vao cham diit mau thuin Dong - Tay va khdi tao cue dien mdi tren cac mat: chinh tri, quan sii, kinh te, tai chinh, van hoa, thong tin... Cong nghe thong tin, cong nghe sinh hoc, cong nghe vat lieu, cong nghe hang khong vii tru, cong nghe nang liidng mdi va nhieu cong nghe khac da tao diidc dot pha ldn trong nhiing lan sdng doi mdi vi dai, (RAND Corporation 2009). Ben canh Cue dien dia - chinh tri da ciic, da lan liidt xuat hien nhieu cue dien mdi tren quy mo toan cau. Dd la: Dia-kinh tevdi tren 78.000 cong ty xuyen quoc gia, cd 780.000 chi nhanh niidc ngoai dang hoat dong vdi tong tai san nam 2006 len tdi 52 nghin ty USD; Dia • tdi chinh vdi 3 dong tien thanh toan quoc te la USD, EURO, YEN va hang chuc dong tien thanh toan cua nhiing niidc khac. Dia - thong tin vdi bieu triing la mang Internet ngay mot nang cap va md rong; Dia • vdn hod vdi 3 khoi di biet Anglo- xdcxong, Hoi gido va Hdn hod tren quy mo toan cau. Nhiing nam dau Thien nien ky cue dien mdi dang tiidng tac l^n nhau trong ddi song eua xa hoi; diin ra dong thdi, thiidng xuyen, lien tue va xam nhap l ln nhau; da lam thang tram va dao Ion diidng loi va chien liidc doi ngoai ciia nhieu cac quoc gia tren khip cac luc dia. Tren quy mo toan eau va cae khu viic, qua trinh toan cau hoa diin ra vdi tdc do eao, Nguyen Van Lang, Tien sy kinh te, Thii trUdng Bo Khoa hoc va Cong nghe. S<f 29(11+12/2009) QUAN Lt KINH TC Li ill 1J NGHIEN Cl)li - TRAP DPI xu THf TOAN CAU VA GIAI PHAP PHAT TRI^N DAT NLfOC GIAI BOAN 2010-2025 khien d'n dinh tifdng doi tai moi quoc gia deu cd nguy cd chuyen hoa thanh tinh the lien tue xao tron. Van de dat ra la, vdi tinh each dac trifng thdi dai, qua trinh tang triidng va phat trien ngay cang nhanh, khi nao se dat tdi miic gidi han va khi nao se vifdt qua kha nang giam sat, dieu tiet va quan ly cua eae nha lanh dao qudc gia, to chiie va dinh che qudc te?. Day la khd khan vdi bat ky nha lanh dao nao khi phai doi mat vdi nhiing van de quoc te, nhiing van de mang tinh toan cau. Thiic te nay ddi hdi phai cd nhiing nd liic phd'i hdp, hdp tac cua nhieu niidc thuoc cac nen van hoa khac nhau. Tien bo phi thiidng cua lich sxi diia tren nhiing dot pha khoa hoc va cdng nghe, dang dat ra nhieu van de mdi vdi nhiing thaeh thiic to ldn ve to chiic quan ly dd'i vdi cac nha lanh dao d moi qudc gia, td chiie va dinh che qudc te. Bung nd dan so', khi hau ndng len tren quy md toan clu, can kiet nguon nifdc, nang lifdng va tai nguyen thien nhien; d nhiem mdi trifdng, triet pha pha rifng, huy hoai da dang sinh hoe, loai va sinh canh; tham hoa thien nhien; nan ddi, tinh trang phan hoa giau ngheo cung vdi cac luong di dan, dai dich AIDS va gan day la dich eiim H5N1 va HlNl. . . la nhufng thaeh thiic thdi dai rdng ldn. Hien tai va trong tifdng lai, bat ky qudc gia nao eiing deu phai dd'i mat va tim kiem giai phap hiiu hieu cho 4 van de mang tinh toan cau. Dd la: An ninh tdi chinh; An ninh ndng luqng; An ninh iMng thUc; An ninh moi trudng va kem theo dd la cac van de xa hoi nay sinh. 1.1. An ninh tdi chinh Dot pha eiia cdng nghe thdng tin truyen thdng da pha vd biic tifdng khdng gian - thdi gian, mot lUdng khd'ng lo phi vu giao dich tai chinh da difdc thiic hien thdng qua mang tai ehinh dien tii toan cau, lien thdng vdi td'c do ciic nhanh, tao nen mot khd'i ladng ldn tien ao, ed gia tri gap hang tram ngan lan gia tri ddng tien that, ma khdng mot ai, qud'c gia hay td chiic nao cd the kiem soat ndi. Hien tlidng nay tao cdn sdng than tan pha he thd'ng tai chinh ngan hang cua cac niidc phat trien. Rieng d My, neu nam 1990 luan chuyen tien te trong mot thang eon d miic 3000 ty USD, thi den nam 2000, da vUdt 571 nghin ty USD, nghia la da tang tren 190 lan. Cuoc khung hoang tin dung bat dau tu! n^a cudi nam 2007 d My, da lay lan tren quy md toan eau mot each nhanh chdng; khien toan bo thi trifdng tai chinh, tien te the gidi bi chao dao, te liet. Nhieu td chufc tai chinh quoc te hang dau thua Id nang, da gay hieu ling sup dd dd'i vdi toan bo he thd'ng ngan hang d cae niidc phat trien. Cuoc khung hoang tai chinh tai My, da keo theo Nhat Ban va nhieu nen kinh te ldn, nho khac rdi vao suy thoai, buoc Chinh phu cac niidc nay phai chi ra hang nghin ty USD de chong dd, hoac phai cau ciiu ngudn hd trd tvf ben ngoai. Gia ca tang vot vao cud'i nam 2007 va dau nam 2008 gay bien dong ldn tai nhieu nifdc; bdn con rdng chau A, ciing bi anh hifdng nang ne, eho dii da bdm hang nghin ty USD vao de viic day nen kinh te. Trong bao eao "Trien vpng Kinh te The gidi" (WEO) cdng bd' triidc hdi nghi thiidng nien Miia Xuan 2009, Quy Tien te The gidi (IMF) cho biet cuoc khung hoang hien nay tac ddng bat ldi tdi hoat dong thiidng mai qud'c te, khd'i lifdng thifdng mai dii kien giam 11% va kinh te the gidi cung giam 1,3% trong nam 2009 va chi tang chtfng 0,6% vao nam 2010 ( IMF 2009). Tvf thiic te cua khung hoang tai chinh lan nay, lanh dao nhieu niidc, cac td chiic va dinh che qud'c te deu cd chung nhan xet la: Cuoc khung hoang dd dnh hicdng tdi mpi niidc trong cue dien dia - chinh tri khien nhieu niidc phai giam bdt lap triidng ciing r i n trong chinh sach ddi ngoai. Khiing hoang tdi chinh vd suy thoai kinh te todn cdu cho thdy vai trb vd tdm. quan trpng ciia Nhd niidc trong viec dieu hdnh kinh tevi mo da lam sup dd hoc thuyet cua phai kinh te "Tdn tiX do" va khdi day lai Ly thuyet Keyne, di cao vai trb dieu tiet vl mo cua Nhd nUdc ddi vdi nin kinh te. Trong the gidi toan cau hoa, cae nen kinh te n i m trong sii tuy thuoc l l n nhau (Interdependence) d miic dd cao, dd xudt QUAN LY KINH T£ Si29nu12/2009) xu JHi TOAN CAU VA GIAI PHAP PHAT TRif N DAT NUdC GIAI DOAN 2010-2025 NGHIEN ClilU - TRAP DPI ^^\\ hien mot ca che xii ly khung hoang dqi dien cho cd nhiing nen kinh te phdt trien ldn dang phdt trien: dd Id G-20. Mac dii cd che nay chiia diing khdng it khuyet tat, song day vin difdc coi la mot "hien tifdng" mdi cua thdi dai. Cuoc khiing hoang tai chinh lan nay tai cac nifdc phat trien nhat the gidi bao hieu Thdi dai Pax Americana (Hda binh the gidi dudi sii ba chu cua My) se ket thdc. Trong mot tifdng lai khdng xa, the gidi se sdng trong nen hba binh diidi sit hd chu kinh te cua Trung Qudc - gqi Id Pax Sinica. Theo GS kinh te ndi tieng Niall Ferguson thuoc Dai hoc Harvard (My) thi day "Khong phdi Id sii liia chpn, md Id vdn de thdi gian vd dinh menh" . 1. 2. An ninh ndng litgng Phln ldn cac ngudn nang lifdng ma chiing ta dang s\l dung deu bat ngudn tii hda thaeh (than da, dau md, khi ddt...), la dang tai nguyen khdng the tai tao, diidc khai thac tii trong long dat va cac dai difdng. Theo dii bao, ngudn nang lifdng nay se can kiet, dau md thifdng mai chi cdn dii dCing 60 nam, khi tii nhien 80 nam va than khoang 150 - 200 nam. Quy Bao ve Dong vat hoang da The gidi (WWF) eho biet, con ngiidi dang sii dung ngudn tai nguyen thien nhien vdi tdc do nhanh hdn nhieu lan so vdi kha nang san xuat mdi ciia hanh tinh. Loai ngifdi hien tieu thu nhieu hdn 20% kha nang tai tao tai nguyen eiia trai dat. Tif nam 1970 den 2000, con ngiidi da sii dung 40% sd'ddng vat sd'ng tren can, ngudn nifdc va sinh vat bien. Trong giai doan 1961-2000, tieu thu nang lifdng hoa thaeh (than, khi va dau liia) ciing tang khoang 7 lan. Trong xu the phat trien tieu diing, an ninh nang lifdng dang trd thanh van de cap bach; nhieu nifde tren the gidi dang ed nhiing hanh ddng tang cifdng an ninh nang lifdng va ldi giai cho van de nay la md rdng viec sii dung nang lifdng tai tao (mat trdi, gid, thuy dien, dia nhiet v.v.), khai thac td't cae ngudn nang lUdng mdi (hydro, nhiet hach, v.v.). Day la viec lam cd the gdp phan tich ciic xda di hang loat cuoc chien tranh hoac khung hoang dang cd nguy cd dien ra. 1. 3. An ninh liicfng thUc Td Chiie Ndng - Liidng Lien Hiep Qud'c (FAO) dii bao, nam 2009, sd' ngifdi thieu an tren the gidi vifdt ngifdng mot ty. Theo Jacques Diouf, Tdng Giam ddc FAO, nguy cd ngifdi ngheo thieu an se cdn gia tang ciing vdi cac kho dii trii lifdng thiic the gidi rdi xudng miic thap nhat va viec san xuat ngay cang bi bien ddi khi hau de doa. Ong ket luan: "Khung hodng liidng thiic khong nhiing vdn cbn do, md lqi cbn bi khung hodng kinh te tdi chinh Idm cho gay gdt them". Tai Hoi nghi Bd triidng Bo Ndng nghiep cae qud'c gia G8 thang 4/2009, Kanayo Nwanze, Giam ddc Quy phat trien Lifdng thiic The gidi ( FIDA) eho biet "Tdi ndm 2050, tdng sdn pham liicfng thiic the' gidi buoc phdi tdng gdp doi mdi ddp Ung du nhu cdu cita cii ddn tren hdnh tinh, de ed the nudi mot dan sd' se len den 9 ty ngifdi. Ddy Id yen cdu nong nghiep the gidi phdi ddp iing trong dieu kien ddn sd phdt trien binh thiidng nhii hien nay". Thaeh thiic an ninh liidng thiic ddi hdi lanh dao cac qud'c gia, phai ed bien phap, ehinh sach va ke hoach hanh ddng nhim tao ra nhiing thay ddi khuynh hifdng diu tif ndng nghiep; xac lap nhiing van de, linh viic then chdt ddi vdi tang trifdng kinh te, dam bao an ninh lifdng thiic tren pham vi toan clu (Kanayo Nwanze, 2009). 1. 4. An ninh moi tnidng Nhan loai dang phai ddi mat vdi nhieu van de mdi triidng biic xiic va nan giai, ndi bat nhat la nan can kiet cdc nguon tdi nguyen thien nhien; 6 nhiim moi triidng vd nhiing tai bien thien nhien. Neu d the ky XVIII, Man-tuyt va Tiu-go diia ra cai goi la Quy luqt ve sii gidm ddn sii phi nhieu cua ddt dai; den the ky XIX, Tdm-xdn va Cd-ru- xd dat van de ve sii can kiet cdc nguon ndng liidng, thi ngay nay con ngiidi da phai noi den nguy ca can kiet todn bg cdc nguon tdi nguyen thien nhien, ca tai tao va khdng tai tao tren hanh tinh. Di cung can kiet tai nguyen thien nhien la van nan d nhiem mdi triidng, d in den nhiing hiem hoa sinh thai Stf2g(1U12/2009) QUAN LY KINH ti VTJl NGHIEN COU - TRAP DPI xu THf TOAN CAU VA GIAI PHAP PHAT T R I ^ N OAT Nl/dC GIAI EXDAN 2010-2025 tiem tang, ma hau qua chiia the nao lifdng het. Trong nhiing hiem hoa gay ra, nguy hiem va nan giai la hien tifdng gay hieu Ung nhd kinh, 16 thdng tdng 6-z6n, miia a-xit, sa mac hoa vd sii suy gidm da dang sinh hpc... lam bien ddi cac dieu kien thien nhien theo chieu hifdng rat tieu ciic dd'i vdi sii sd'ng tren trai dat. Mot trong nhiing bien ddi sinh thai nguy hiem nhat la sii thay ddi khi hdu trdi ddt. Day la hau qua tong hdp, ta t yeu ciia cac hien tifdng d nh i im mdi trifdng. Theo nhieu dii bao, nhiet dp trung binh cda trdi ddt giiia the ky XXI se tang len tii 1,5° C den 4,5°C va keo theo la biet bao hiem hoa khac. Theo G.B. Brdn-td-man, nguyen Chu tich iiy ban Mdi trifdng va Pha t trien The gidi, bien ddi khi hau la mdi de doa ldn nhat, nd khdng nhiing de doa sii tdn vong ciia loai ngifdi, ma cdn uy hiep ca tifdng lai Trai dat. Mdi nam nhan loai thai ra khoang 7,9 Gton (ti tan) carbon (diia tren difdng lifdng hda hoc thi trong 3,7 tan C02 cd chiia 1 tan carbon) tii viec dot chay nhien lieu hda thaeh, va tif 1-2 Gton C do tham hoa chay riing. Gidi han nguy hiem ciia hanh tinh la miic tang nhiet do t rung binh toan c lu len +2°C, tifdng iing vdi mat do C02 trong bau khi quyen cham miic 450ppm. Hien nay, mat do khi C02 trong khi quyen la 390ppm, cd nghia la con ngifdi chi difdc phep thai ra them 60ppm khi C02. Van de cang trd nen nghiem trong hdn khi nhiet do toan cau tang them tren 2°C la Bien bang se khdng cdn tdn tai d hai ciic Trai dat va miic niidc bien ddng cao (Sea level rise - SLR) Id diiu khong the trdnh khoi. Theo IPCC, khi SLR dang cao hdn lm, Bangladesh se ma t khoang 1/5 dien tich, hdn 2.000 dam vudng d viing duyen hai va t h a n h th i tieu bang North Carolina (My) se n i m difdi miic niidc bien. Ba mifdi t rong so' cac thanh phd' ldn nha t cua the gidi dang n i m gan bien, Im thuy t r ieu dang se day triic tiep 300 tr ieu ngifdi vao t inh t r ang nguy hiem. 1.5. Nhiing vdn de xd hpi Mot t rong nhiing van de ndi len gay biic xiic d moi qud'c gia va mdi ngifdi dan la 6 nhiem moi triidng tinh thdn con ngiidi. O nhiem van hda, d nhiem dao diic la nhiing van de khd thay, nhifng siic huy hoai ciia chiing thi t h a t khdn lifdng. O day, cd the t am neu ra mot so' n h a n xet ve t ham nhiing, mang In te rne t va van nan riia tien. Tham nhiing la viec sif dung quyen liic, uy tin va dia vi cdng cong de chiem doat cac gia tr i vat chat va t inh t h a n cua xa hoi hoac cua ngiidi khac. Doi tifdng tham nhiing khdng chi la nhiing gia t r i vat chat nhif ngifdi ta thifdng quan niem, ma cdn la nhiing gia tr i t inh than . O linh vxfc tinh t h i n , rnvfc do nguy hiem cvia tham nhiing cdn ghe gdm hdn nhieu so vdi vat chat. Trong linh viic cd ve nhif yen dn nay, hien tlidng tham nhiing dien ra t inh vi, nang ne va siic t an pha xa hoi cdn khdc liet hdn. Tham nhiing la mot can benh cua nhan loai, tdn tai trong moi xa hoi, moi thdi dai, moi he thd'ng chinh tri va moi dan tdc deu phai dd'i mat. Cd the ndi, t ham nhiing vdi nhieu bien thai t inh vi dd la mot phan thuoc ve ban chat ddi sd'ng con ngifdi. Chiing ta khdng the xoa sach difdc tham nhiing, ddn gian vi chiing ta khdng the tieu diet het loai ngifdi. Do vay, khdng the chi nhin t ham nhiing diidi con m i t cua nha tdi pham hoc ma phai nghien ciiu nd mot each toan dien va bien chiing difdi nhiing khia canh khac n h a u cua ddi sd'ng kinh te-xa hdi. Chi cd each nhin diing d i n va khach quan mdi giiip chiing ta cd diidc nhiing phifdng thuo'c hieu nghiem de che ngii, hay it nha t la han che thii benh dich xa hdi nay. Internet Id mot mon ldi bdt ngd, nhiing cdng Id mot nguy cd tiem dn to ldn. Hda chat doc hai, thuoc trii sau, han the, for- mol "dau doc" the xac con ngiidi. The nhifng thii "doc to" dang sd, khong chi lam d nhiem ddi song t inh t h a n cua ca xa hoi ma cdn "dau doc" khiing khiep hdn ca ma QUAN Lt KINH it siam*^vrm^ xu THf TOAN CAU VA GIAI PHAP PHAT TRif N DAT NLfOC GIAI EXDAN 2010-2025 NGHIEN Cllnj - TRAP DPI rrm tiiy, mai dam, dd la nhiing t rang "Web den". Ben canh ldi ich khdng the phii nhan cua Internet, cdng nghe thdng tin ky dieu tren nhiing website den ciing de trd thanh cdng cu "truyen nhiem" van hda ddi truy, hiiy hoai nhiing gia tri van hoa, dao diic cua moi qud'c gia, ma biet bao the he di trifdc da day cdng xay diing, giii gin. Riia tien {Money Laundering) la viec bien ddi thu nhap phi phap thanh tai san ma cac cd quan cdng quyen khdng the truy ra ngudn gdc. Theo Quy Tien te Qud'c Te (IMF), hang nam cd khoang 640 ti den 1,6 nghin ty USD, khoang 2-5% GDP toan clu la tien ban. Trong dd, khoang 250 ti USD di vao nUdc My; lifdng tien nay ldn hdn tdng doanh thu cua cac cdng ty cdng nghiep vii khi, d iu hoa va may bay. Do ddng dd la My va Euro difdc sii dung chung hoac cdng nhan nhif la ndi te ban ehinh thiic, nhieu lifdng tien khdng id, ca sach va bin, deu cd the chuyen tif nUdc nay sang nifde khac trong nhay mat, ngoai t im kiem soat ciia cd quan cdng quyen. Ciing vdi do md kinh te d cac qud'c gia tang vot, h iu nhif moi ngan hang, cdng ty tai chinh, giao dich chiing khoan... deu cd ddi tac qudc te, tham chi 100% la cua nifdc ngoai. Trong vdng 15 nam gin day lifdng tien lifu hanh toan eau tang gap 3 lln; tif nam 1990 den 2000 dau tif gian tiep nifdc ngoa tang gap 10 l ln va d iu tif triic tiep tang gan 3 l ln (nam 2003 dat 560 ty USD). Dieu hien nhien la, cang nhieu loai hinh dieh vu tai chinh thi cang lam ed hoi va each thiic de chuyen tien phi phap, hoac difa tien ban vao ludng tien sach... Tien ban va hoat ddng riia tien lam sai lech cac thd'ng ke kinh te, lam anh hifdng sau sac den phan bd' thu nhap, tao bat cdng va lam chao dao sii tin nhiem eiia xa hdi vao cae thi trifdng tai chinh. 0 cac nifde kem ph i t trien, tham nhiing, riia tien la van nan nhiie nhdi. Trai lai, nhiing nifde phifdng Tay lai khdng he "che" tien ban do tham nhiing d elc nifde khac. De chdng rifa tien, van de rd rang la ein cd quyet tam cao ciia cae lanh dao moi qud'c gia trong sii phdi hdp toan cau. The ky XX da vinh vi in qua di vdi t inh each la mot thdi ky phat trien "Hodng kim", "Thdi vdng son". Trong Thien nien ky mdi, nhan loai, lanh dao d moi qud'c gia, cae td chiic va dinh che the gidi dang bUdc vao mot thdi ky phat trien mdi, vdi ddi hdi cao va nhieu hdn ve ly tri, tU duy khoa hoc; Viet Nam khdng n i m ngoai bd'i canh da neu va cang ddi hdi phai cd tif duy lanh dao mdi. 2. Thvfc t r a n g k i n h te va nhiifng giai p h a p xay diing da t nvCdc t heo hi idng "dan giau, ntidc m a n h " Bude vao the 'ky XXI, sau khi trd thanh thanh vien chinh thiic ciia WTO, thiic hien cam ket Quy che thifdng mai binh thifdng vinh vi in (PNTR) vdi Hoa Ky; cac rao can thifdng mai dan difdc dd bd, vi the ciia Viet Nam tren trifdng qud'c te ngay mot nang cao ciing vdi cac hoat ddng hdp tac kinh te, d i u tif md rdng va thi trifdng qud'c te ngay cang difdc cung cd', tang eUdng. Nhd chinh tri dn dinh, an ninh - qud'c phdng dam bao, Viet Nam da tao mdi trifdng thuan ldi de thu hiit manh d i u tif nifdc ngoai. Cd the ndi ea the va liic ciia Viet Nam da manh len rat nhieu so vdi nhiing nam trifdc. Ke tif khi b i t dau cdng cuoc ddi mdi, den nay Viet Nam da dat dUde nhieu thanh tiiu kinh te het siic to ldn, duy tri diidc tdc do tang trifdng eao difde ca the gidi thifa nhan. Trong suy thoai kinh te toan cau, nen kinh te nifdc ta vdi do md ldn, phu thude khdng nhd vao dau tif nUdc ngoai da chiu nhieu tac ddng va nhiing khd khan, thaeh thiic dUdc dii b io v i n cdn gay gi t . Net ndi bat trong anh hudng khung hoang tai chinh toan c lu la tang trifdng kinh te suy giam; hau het cae nganh san xuat va dich vu chu yeu deu bi giam siit, thi trifdng xuat khau thu hep, dau tif nifdc ngoai va ngudn ngoai hdi thu ve cd nhieu han che. Ben canh nhiing sut giam nay, nhieu khd khan ndi tai vdn cd ciia nen kinh te v i n cham difdc k h i c phuc. Sd29(1U12/2009) OUAN Lt KINH T^ [TOI NGHIEN Giio • TRAP DDI xu THf TOAN CAU VA GIAI PHAP PHAT TRI^N OAT Nl/dC GIAI £X)AN 2010-2025 Phan tich thiic t rang kinh te'-xa hdi nhiing nam gan day cho thay, dau tif trong nifdc va ciia nifdc ngoai gia tang da tao da tang trifdng manh ve kinh te, nhifng do nen kinh te chifa cd chuyen bien dang ke ve nang suat lao ddng, nang liic canh t ranh va hieu qua thap, nen kinh te phat trien chifa ben viing; hieu qua dau tif nhieu nam difdc danh gia vao loai thap nhat trong khu viic. Ngudn liic quy nhat diidc coi trong ngay nay la nhdn liic, lai chifa phat huy cd hieu qua; tdi nguyen ddt dai sit dung manh miin, dat canh t i e giam siit va dang cd xu hiidng bi huy hoai. Tdi nguyen bien, mot khu viic cd y nghia sinh tii dd'i vdi van menh dat nifdc, song difdng nhif cdn bi lang quen. Sau hdn 20 nam ddi mdi, mac dii cd nhieu thanh tiiu kinh te to ldn, nhifng GDP theo dau ngifdi hien nay van thap va cdn n i m d khoang each kha xa so vdi cac nifdc trong khu viic, chUa b i n g 1/2 so vdi Indonesia, difdi 1/3 Thai Lan. Muc tieu hoan thanh sii nghiep cdng nghiep hoa theo hifdng hien dai vao nam 2020 van cdn kha xa, trong khi thdi gian cdn lai khdng nhi^u. Bao cao Phdt trien Viet Nam 2009 cUa Ngdn hdng Thd gidi (WB) chi ra, cho dii Viet Nam dat difdc miic tang trifdng cao trong thdi gian dai, nhiing dang cdn khoang each kha xa so vdi cac niidc trong khu viic; bi tut hau ve kinh te tdi 51 nam so vdi Indonesia, 95 nam so vdi Thai Lan va 158 nam so vdi Singapore. Theo Diin ddn Kinh te the gidi, hau het cac tieu chi canh t ranh trong kinh doanh ciia Viet Nam deu d difdi miic t rung binh (thap hdn 5 trong thang diem 10). Cdn theo Tdchirc Minh bach qudc te, Viet Nam difdc xep d 2,6/10 diem nam 2007 va 2,7/10 diem trong nam 2008. Chi so' nay cho thay, tham nhiing nifdc ta v i n dang d miic ra t cao ( Thanh Phifdng va Thanh Y 2009). Thiic tien hien nay cho thay, ldi the phat trien cua Viet Nam thdi gian qua, chu yeu diia tren ldi the lao dpng re vd khai thdc tdi nguyen, dd la phiidng thiic phdt trien theo chieu rpng (Extensive Development) dang dan tdi ngifdng khdng the vifdt qua. De dam bao toe do va nang liic canh t r a n h ciia minh, Viet Nam tat yeu phai chuyen qua mot phifdng thiic phdt trien mdi theo chiiu sdu (Intensive Development) diia t ren nen san xuat tham dung cdng nghe va ky thua t , pha t huy td'i da nhiing ldi the cd ban ma it niidc cd the sanh difdc ve ngudn liic con ngiidi, nong nghiep chdu A nhiet ddi gid miia vd hdn mot niia bien gidi qudc gia Id bien cd bao quanh. Trong mot "The gidi phdng, todn the gidi thdch thiic mpt ngiidi vd mpt ngiidi cd the coi cd the gidi Id dd'i tdc cita minh", tudi tho ciia san pham ngay mot ng in , thi viec chuyen sang phifdng thiic phdt trien theo chiiu sdu, da trd t h a n h ddi hdi biic bach. Cham chuyen ddi sang phifdng thCfc sdn xudt theo chiiu sdu, diia t ren cac Idi the, de tien n h a n h ra bien, khai thac va lam chii bien khdi cd the lam Id bifdc ciia ca dan toe t rong mot the gidi dang phat trien nhanh, ma ngifdi Nha t da tiing nhin nhan khdng phai "Sai mot ly, di mpt ddm", ma la "Sai mpt ly, di mpt ddi". Vdi phifdng thiic pha t tr ien hien nay, ve thiic chat, nen kinh te Viet Nam dang di theo eon difdng pha t t r ien theo chieu rong. Mot khi phifdng thiic pha t t r ien theo chieu rong tien den gidi han ciia nd, thi tdc do phat trien bi giam siit n h a n h va nen kinh te se chiu nhieu tac dong tieu ciic. Neu khdng nhan thiic difdc dieu nay de cd bien phap dd'i phd kip thdi, 10 nam tdi, kinh te Viet Nam se gap phai nhieu nan giai. Da den Iiic kinh te Viet Nam phai vUdn len tam cao mdi de cd kha nang canh t ranh difdc vdi cac nifdc trong khu viic va tren the gidi. Hifdng vao pha t t r ien kinh te dat nifdc mot each dn dinh va ben vflng, moi bo, nganh va tiing dia phifdng can xac dinh difdc nhiing Idi the canh t ranh, the manh cua rieng minh. Lau nay, ci nifdc ta cdn tdn tai mot nghjch ly la dia phifdng, nganh va Bo nao ciing deu xay diing chien QUAN Lt KINH T£ S(f29ni-i-12/2009) xu THf TOAN CAU VA GIAI PHAP PHAT TRif N OAT Nl/dC GIAI DOAN 2010-2025 NGHIEN ClJfU - TRAP DPI [ J j ^ ^ J lifdc phat trien. Nhifng t ren thiic te, do chifa cd t i m nhin xa ciing nhif thieu nhiing dii bao ve phat trien khoa hoe & cdng nghe, nen thudng mang tinh phan tan, khdng gan ket vdi nhau vi muc tieu phat trien chung cua ca qud'c gia. Den nay, nhan thUe ve t r inh do phat trien cdng nghiep, cdng nghe, kha nang canh qud'c gia ciia Viet Nam tren quy md the gidi va khu vUc van dang cdn la bai toan nan giai ddi vdi nen kinh te. De chan hUng dat nUde theo hUdng dan gilu, nUdc manh, dat dUde muc tieu KT- XH trong thien nien ky mdi thi nhiing ndi dung ldn ciia phat trien kinh te c in phai tap trung vao viec bien nUdc ta trd thanh: Ciidng qudc sdn xudt sdn pham nong nghiep nhiet ddi cho the gidi; ciidng qudc kinh te bien, vd Id ciidng qudc vi ngudn nhdn liic cong nghe thdng tin (CNTT) co ky ndng cao. 2.1. Mpt ciidng qudc sdn xudt sdn pham nong nghiep nhiet ddi Trong the gidi ngay cang md rdng, tif tiem nang va ldi the nhiet ddi, dUdc thien nhien Uu dai ve tai nguyen sinh thai vdi nhieu san pham mang t inh dac thii, Viet Nam hoan toan cd the liia chon ndng nghiep lam mue tieu de trd thanh mot trong nhiing nUdc xuat khau ndng san hang dau the gidi. Mac dau chi mdi gia nhap thi trUdng the gidi trong khoang thdi gian khdng dai, nhUng kim ngach xuat kh^u ndng lam thiiy san eua nUde ta da lien tue gia tang. Gan day da dat 20 ty USD/nam va neu tap t rung phat trien manh theo hudng nay, nhieu dii bao cho r ing, Viet Nam cd the dat tren 40 ty USD/nam trong mot thdi gian khdng xa. Tiem nang xuat khau cd nhieu, nhiing mat hang cd the vUdn len d i n dau the gidi cd the la liia gao, thiiy san, ca phe, cao su, rau qua, hat dieu va san pham gd. Lua gao: Nhin t ren ban dd the gidi, dd dang nhan thay, Viet Nam da trd thanh cUdng qud'c lUdng thiic thii hai. Vdi truyen thd'ng van minh liia nUde cd lich sU va kinh nghiem tif hang nghin nam, Viet Nam hoan toan cd the xuat khau cdng nghe trdng liia cho nhieu nUde tren the gidi, nha t la cac nUdc d chau Phi va My La tinh. Trong dieu kien an ninh lUdng thiic bi de doa, kha nang nay hoan toan hien thiic, bdi Viet Nam trdng dUde liia quanh nam vdi nhieu gidng nang suat cao va thdi gian sinh trUdng n g i n (dUdi 100 ngay). Liia gao Viet Nam cd the la giai dap tdt de giai quyet nan ddi, ddi khi kha trien mien d nhieu nUde, dac biet la d chau Phi. Cd phe: Sau Brazil, ea phe Viet Nam dUdc ca the gidi biet den la mot cUdng qud'c xuat khau. ThUdng hieu Ca phe Viet ngay cang dUdc khang dinh d d ing cap eao t ren thi trUdng qud'c te. Hien nay, ca phe Viet Nam da xuat khau den 40 nUdc va viing lanh thd. Cao su: Cay cao su Hevea Brasiliensis ngudn gdc tif luu viic sdng Amazon (Nam My), da cd mat d Viet Nam tii nam 1897; den nay, dUde md rong trdng tren dia ban ca nUdc. Theo hUdng phat trien da nganh, n h i m sU dung triet de nguyen lieu s i n cd, gia tang g i i tri san pham va nhiing ldi the tiem nang; Tap doan Cdng nghiep Cao su Viet Nam dii t inh den nam 2015 se dUa dien tich cao su len 50 van ha. Hien nay, cao su Viet Nam diing thii 3 the' gidi, dang cd nhieu hiia hen de md rong thi trUdng tieu thu den nhieu nUde tren the gidi va trong khu viic. Hat diiu: Viet Nam da vUdt qua An Do, cUdng qud'c Dieu, de trd thanh qud'c gia dan dau the gidi ve xuat khau. Chat lUdng nhan dieu Viet Nam eiing dUdc coi la sd' 1, thdm ngon hdn h i n nhan dieu An Do, Brazil hay Tanzania. Thi trUdng Dieu Viet Nam tap t rung d mot so' nUde, trong dd, Hoa Ky chiem 40%, Trung Qud'c 20%, Chau Au 20%. Hd tieu: La mot trong nhiing qud'c gia san xuat hang d iu , Theo Hiep hoi Hd tieu Viet Nam (VPA), quy 1/2009 VN da xuat khau dUde 27.075 tan hat tieu vdi kim ngach 65,9 trieu USD, cao nhat trong hdn Stf29(1U12/2009) QUAN Lt KINH TE [TOI NGHIEN CIA) - TRAD DOI xu THf TOAN CAU VA GIAI PHAP PHAT TRif N DAT NLTOC GIAI DOAN 2010-2025 hai nam qua. Ve khdi lUdng, xuat khau hd tieu da tang 11.506 tan so vdi cung ky 2008. Thuy sdn: Trong 10 nam vifa qua, xuat khau thuy san cua Viet Nam cd bUdc phat trien d ly an tUdng. TU chd khdng cd ten, den nay thuy san Viet Nam da diing vao nhdm 10 nUde cd gia tri kim ngach xuat khau ldn nhat the gidi . Lam sdn: Viet Nam da trd thanh mot trong 5 nUde dat kim ngach xuat khau mat hang dd gd, tU 3 den 5 ty USD hang nam. Ngoai nhiing nong san dat kim ngach xuat khau cao, niicic ta con co nhieu nong san xuat khau khac phu hdp vdi nhiing nUct on dcd trong miia dong lanh nhif rau, cu qua, che... la cac mat hang dang phat trien vcd toe do cao. La mot nUde ndng nghiep nhiet ddi, vdi hdn 71%) cU dan lam ndng nghiep; vdi ban chat c in cu chiu khd va dUdc thien nhien Uu dai, Viet Nam da hinh thanh dUdc nhieu .vung kinh te sinh thai tif Tay Nguyen den Ddng Bang sdng Ciiu Long, Ddng Bang sdng Hdng va tdi day la Tay Bae va vung ven bien... Tuy nhien, nhin chung san pham ndng nghiep lam ra v i n la nguyen heu thd, gia tri gia tang thap, chUa ed thUdng hieu manh va thieu sUc canh t ranh vdi san pham cung loai cua Thai Lan va Trung Qudc. Van de quan trong anh hUdng den chat lUdng ndng san xuat khau la gid'ng, cdng nghe sau thu hoach va che bie'n. Ddi vdi Ilia gao, tdn that sau thu hoach thUdng tif 9 den 17%, tham chi 20-30%; nghia la mat khoang 3.000 ty ddng hang nam. Trong san xuat rau qua, ca nUdc da cd tren 600.000 ha vdi san lUdng 4-5 tr ieu tan/nam nhifng nang liic che bien chi dat chUng 2%). Do san pham khdng qua che bien, tieu thu khdng kip thdi, gia thap nen thu nhap giam siit tii 15 den 30%). TU thiic t rang hien nay, de cd the trd thanh cUdng qud'c cung cap ndng san cho the gidi thi khoa hoc va cdng nghe phai giii vai trd t rung tam. Chien lUde khoa hoc cdng nghe ndng nghiep c i n tap t rung tao nhUng dot bien ve Gid'ng vd Cdng nghe che bien sau thu hoach. Dieu na j ' chi cd the lam tdt khi cd cd che chinh sach, che do thich hdp nham thu hiit chuyen gia, nha ndng hoc trong, ngoai nUdc va nhat la khuyen khich cac doanh nghiep dau tU cdng siic va tr i tue vao linh viic nay. 2.2. Trd thdnh ciidng qud'c ve kinh te bien La mot nUdc nhiet ddi gid miia, Viet Nam cd bd bien dai hdn 3126 km, them luc dia rong vdi hang ngan dao giau ngudn ldi thuy hai san, dau md, khoang san, nguyen lieu hydrat, mudi,... Cimg vdi tai nguyen bien dao la he thd'ng cang bien nUdc sau, nhieu vinh va bai bien ndi tieng. Doe theo bd bien chay dai cdn biet bao bai cat dep, cd the xay diing t h a n h nhUng t rung tam du lich, nghi dUdng, cac resort, bai t i m mang tam qud'c te. Tai nguyen va the manh bien hien cd cho phep chiing ta khang dinh, Viet Nam cd nhieu thuan ldi de trd thanh mot trong nhiing qud'c gia manh ve kinh te te bien. Nhin vao ban d.o the gidi cd the thay, neu cd mot con kenh dao, kieu kenh dao Panama hay kenh Suy-e n i m giiia Thai Lan va Malaysia, thi dao Phii Qud'c cd the thay the Singapo trd t hanh Trung tam ldn vdi nang liic nhU cang Amsterdam (Ha Lan). Khi dd, nUdc ta se trd thanh mot t rung tam t rung chuyen vdi dung lUdng hang hoa vd cimg to ldn, Lich sii phat trien ciia cac t hanh phd' cang the gidi giiip cho chiing ta nhin nhan , xet ve vi tri hang hai thi khdng ndi nao td't hdn vinh Van Phong ciia Viet Nam. Cac thanh pho cang ndi t ieng the gidi nhU Chicago, Amsterdam hay Osaka trong giai doan dau deu la nhUng dau tau kinh te cua My, Ha Lan va Nhat Ban. Ciing vdi sii trdi day cua nen kinh te chau A, vdi vi tr i cua minh, nhieu ludng hang cd the se tii T rung Qud'c, An Do hay Thai Lan, OUAN LY KINH TE sa 29 (11f 12/2009) XU THE TOAN CAU VA GlAl PHAP PHAT TRif N DAT NUOC GIAI DOAN 2010-2025 NGHIEN CIJIJ - TRAO DPI Q ^ ^ j J Campuchia, Lao... di qua Viet Nam de den vdi the gidi va ngUdc lai. Day la cd hdi de dich vu cang bien cd dUdc nhiing ngudn thu to ldn. Vdi sii phat trien nhanh ehdng ciia nganh cdng nghiep ddng t i u , chiing ta tin rang, Viet Nam du sUc va cd the chiem linh dUdc thi phan cao trong dich vu cang bien, eiing nhU van tai bien. Khoa hoc cdng nghe bien cua Viet Nam hien cdn non tre, ed the ndi la sd khai; so' lieu dieu tra ed ban chUa nhieu, thieu ddng bd, tan man. Vi vay, can xay diing nganh khoa hoc nay de cd hieu biet cd ban ve dieu kien tii nhien, cap nhat dUdc nhUng hieu biet theo bien ddi khi hau. Phat trien nganh khoa hoe nghien cUu bien se gdp tieng ndi vao quy hoach khdng gian cac vung duyen hai, can duyen, dac biet la quy hoach he thd'ng cang bien sao cho phu hdp vdi quy luat tU nhien. Trong kinh te bien can chii trong xay diing va phat trien cac nganh chii dao; can tap trung vao cac khau nhU: Dieu tra khao sat, tham dd tai nguyen bien va dai dUdng; Khai thac va che bien hai san; Tham dd va khai thac d i u khi; Tham dd va khai thac khoang san; Du lich bien; Dich vu cang bien va khdng gian bien; Cdng nghiep tau thuy va van tai bien. Hoat dong KH&CN can hudng vao van dung cdng nghe cao trong hang loat cac hoat ddng tham dd va khai thac nhU: Cdng nghe khai thac nang lUdng bien; Cdng nghe tham dd va khai t h i c hai san xa bd; Cdng nghe sinh vat bien, nghien cUu chii yeu de tao ra cac gid'ng nudi trdng mdi Uu viet, cac gidng ed t inh dot pha de day manh qua t r inh nudi trdng; Cdng nghe khai thac cac loai dUde pham; nghien cUu vai trd, tap tinh t inh tii nhien cua sinh vat bien; tii sinh vat bien riit ra nhUng khang khuan, chat ddc k h i n g benh, khang khdi u, ehdng gia hoa, tao nen nhUng dUde pham mdi va thiic pham dUdng sinh ed chat lUdng cao; Cic cdng nghe tham dd khai thac tai nguyen khoang san d ly bien ve dau khi, kim loai day bien; Cdng nghe tdng hdp tai nguyen bien, trong dd can chu y den cdng nghe lam nhat nUdc bien, cdng nghe tach, riit cac nguyen td': K, Br, Li, U tii nUdc bien. De tang cUdng kha nang dii bao ve mdi trUdng bien, de phdng thien tai, nang eao nang liie bao ve mdi trUdng bien phai quan tam nhieu hdn nUa den Cdng nghe tham dd mdi trUdng bien. Ddng thdi vdi nhUng qua tr inh nay, c in cd sU d i u tu, phdi hdp, nghien cUu mot each toan dien de tao thanh sUc manh tdng hdp, ket hdp chat che ca qudc phdng vdi khoa hoc cdng nghe, kinh te, chinh tri t ren bien. Qud'c phdng bien manh se la chd diia eho ba con ngU dan va cae hoat ddng kinh te-xa hdi tren vung bien, dao cua dat nUdc. Lich sii dUdng bien the gidi cho thay, kinh te bien ludn la nganh miii nhon; trong dd cang bien ed vai trd chu dao. Ndi nao cd cang, ndi dd se la thanh phd' vdi kinh te cdng nghiep va giao thUdng phat trien. Mac du Viet Nam cd mot so cang t i m cd khu viic va the gidi, nhUng tren thiic te, nUdc ta van chUa cd ndi nao nao tiep nhan dUdc tau trong tai 50.000DWT hoac tau container sife chd 3000TEUs. Vdi nhUng cang hien cd, chung ta dang cdn lac hau so vdi mot sd nUdc trong khu viic. Do vay, xay diing va phat trien he thd'ng cang bien qud'c gia viing manh se cd vai trd to ldn va quyet dinh den sU phat trien ciia dat nUdc. De dap iing dUde tdc do phat trien eao trong qua t r inh tien ra bien ldn, eIn phai ndi rdng t i m nhin quy hoach he thd'ng cang bien Viet Nam. Tieu chi thdi gian de quy hoach cho he thd'ng cang bien qud'c gia khdng nen gidi han 20 nam, ma phai rdng den 50 nam, hoac dai hdn nUa, n h i m tao thuan ldi cho kinh te bien Viet Nam theo kip va phii hdp vdi sii phat trien thdi dai. Ngoai viec dang hinh thanh 5 cang con- ta iner cd quy md ddn tau container 6000TEUS cap ben vao nam 2009- 2010, can tap t rung day manh dau tU xay difng cang Van Phong thanh cang trung chuyen tam cd the gidi bao gdm ea cang container, cang tdng hdp, cang chuyen tai nhien lieu. SA 29(11*12/2009) OUAN LY KINH TE [TOI NGHIEN Cljfl) - TRAP DPI xu THf TOAN CAU VA GIAI PHAP PHAT TRif N DAT NL/OC GIAI DOAN 2010-2025 Nghi quyet ve "Chien lUdc bien Viet Nam den nam 2020" cua BCHTU" Dang lan thif 4 khoa X da xac dinh.- "NUdc ta phdi trd thdnh qudc gia manh ve bien, Idm gidu tii bien, tren cd sd phdt huy mpi tiim ndng tii bien, phdt trien todn dien cdc ngdnh nghi bien vdi cd cdu phong phu, hien dqi, tao ra tdc dp phdt trim nhanh, bin vUng, hieu qud cao vdi tdm nhin ddi han". Dinh hUdng ehien lUde ddng thdi cung la quan diem chi dao ddi vdi sU nghiep phat trien kinh te bien Viet Nam la: "Xdy diing vd phdt trien todn dien cdc linh viic kinh te, xd hpi, khoa hpc&cong nghe, tdng ciidng cdng cd qudc phbng, an ninh, Idm cho ddt niidc gidu manh tii bien, bdo ve moi triidng bien. Phdn ddu den ndm 2020, kinh te'tren bien vd ven bien dong gop khodng 53-55% tdng GDP cda cd niidc...". (Dang CSVN 2007). Nhan manh noi dung eiia dinh hUdng phat trien tren day, nhieu nha phan tich eho ring, neu "Phdt trien niidc ta thdnh ciidng qudc nong nghiep vd ciidng qudc kinh te bien cua the gidi" thi moi van de ve phat trien dat nUdc deu da tap trung vao khu viic chiem hdn 80% dan sd ca nUde vdi trong sd ldn la ndng dan. Neu lam tdt 2 ndi dung nay, chiing ta se giai quyet cd ban van de an sinh xa hoi, giai quyet dUde ca 3 van de ldn, mang tinh sd'ng cdn ma toan the gidi dang het sife quan tam, dd la: An ninh liidng thiic; An ninh ndng lupng vd An ninh moi triidng. Dam bao dUde nhiing van de an ninh neu tren, eiing la da giai quyet dUdc nhUng muc tieu neu trong chien lUdc phat trien ben viing trong nhiing thap ky tdi cua qud'c gia. 2.3. Trd thdnh ciidng qudc nhdn liic cong nghe thdng tin (CNTT) cd ky ndng cao. Trong t i m nhin dai han den nam 2020, cdng nghe thdng tin dUde xac dinh la linh viic ndng cdt de chuyen ddi cd eau kinh te- xa hdi, dUa dat nUde trd thanh qud'c gia tien tien ve phat trien kinh te tri thifc va xa hdi thdng tin. Thiic te phat trien KT- XH ciing eho thay, nUde ta dang cd cd hdi de phat trien nganh cdng nghe nay. Viet Nam diing thU 10 trong 50 nUdc cd sife thu hiit ldn nha t dau tU nUdc ngoai vao cdng nghe thdng tin. Ciing vdi t ang trUcing kinh te, sii gia t ang n h a n h chdng cac doanh nghiep CNTT va v i in thdng ldn mcl ra nhieu cd hdi mdi. Vdi quyet dinh dau tU gan 10 ty USD vao thiet ke, san xuat vi mach, may t inh, dien thoai di dong, thiet bi v i in thdng... cua 5 cdng ty ldn (Intel, Renesas, Campal, Samsung va Foxcon) de den nam 2012 dat doanh thu 30 ty USD (ehiem 1/3 GDP cua Viet Nam hien nay) thi viec lam trong cdng nghe thdng tin vd ciing to ldn, nhUng thieu hu t nghiem trong cua cac cdng ty hang dau nay lai la ngudn n h a n liic cd ky nang lanh nghe. Viec md rdng dau tU cua cac cdng ty CNTT xuyen qud'c gia khien nhu eau nhan liic cd tr inh do chuyen nghiep cao d nUde sd tai lai cang trd nen bife xiic; day la d i u ra quan trong eua viec dao tao lao dong cdng nghe thdng tin. La nganh cd ham lUdng chat xam ket t inh ldn, lao ddng cdng nghe thdng tin tao nang suat lao ddng cao gap nhieu l l n so vdi nhieu nganh kinh te khac. Tuy nhien, neu so' lUdng ngUdi lam trong nganh nay it thi khdng cd t i e dung nhU ky vong. Vdi lan sdng dau tU nUdc ngoai, nhieu tap doan hang d i u the gidi Ao vao nUde ta, tao thdi cd phat trien, nhUng mot khi thieu lao dong chat lUdng thi thdi cd ciing se qua di. Chinh vi le nay, quyet t am ciia Chinh phu Viet Nam la phai td chifc dao tao de cd 1 trieu lao dong ky nang lam viec trong linh vUc nay. Thue hien chUdng trinh phat trien va dao tao ky nang cdng nghe thdng tin theo tieu chuan Nhat Ban, nhieu trUdng Dai hoc trong nUdc da phd'i hdp dao tao va td chiic nhiing ky thi thi chung lay chifng chi cdng nghe thdng tin Nhat Ban. Sd' lieu thd'ng ke tii nam 2005 den 2008 cho thay, sd'ngUdi dat tieu chuan cua Viet Nam dat 15,8%; rieng nam 2008 con so' nay len 17,8% trong khi Nhat Ban la 10,8%. Thiic te nay giiip chiing ta cd cd sd de dat niem tin vao ldp tre, vdi td chat Viet Nam, chae chan ho se cd dUdc nhiing dot pha trong tiep thu tien bo OUAN LY KINH TE Sa29(11f12/2Q09) XU THf TOAN CAU VA GIAI PHAP PHAT TRif N DAT N I / 6 C GIAI DOAN 2010-2025 NGHIEN ClJfU - TRAP DPI VIUl KH&CN, de tao ngudn nhan liie dap iing nhu clu trong nUdc va eho ca ben ngoai. Trong xu the phat tr ien cdng nghe thdng tin toan c lu , elc nUde phat trien deu tham hut lao dong chat lUdng cao. Vao nam 2008, trong so' 14,8 trieu ngUdi thi CNTT d Nhat Ban ehi cd 1, 6 trieu ngUdi du tieu chuan (chiem 10,8%), budc cae ddanh nghiep Nhat da phai tuyen dung vdi sd' lUdng ldn tii nUde ngdai. Thdi gian qua, ngudn nhan liic CNTT nUde ta lien tue tang trudng manh me. Ngudn thd'ng ke cho thay, Viet Nam ed tren 35 ngan lao dong triic tiep trong doanh nghiep phan mem, khoang hdn 20 ngan lam viec trong doanh nghiep ndi dung so' va dich vu CNTT; g i n 100 ngan lao ddng trong elc doanh nghiep dien tii, p h l n ciing may tinh va Udc t inh cd khoang 90 ngan nhan liie chuyen trach CNTT trong cae td chUe, doanh nghiep thude nhiing nganh khac. Ca nUde hien cd 13 trUdng DH, Vien Nghien ciiu dao tao sau dai hoc ve CNTT; 230 trifdng dai hoe va cao dang ed dao tao ve CNTT, binh quan sd' sinh vien mdi nam dao tao 18.000 ngUdi, 88 trUdng cd dao tao ve CNTT bae t rung cap chuyen nghiep; eiing nhieu chUdng tr inh dao tao qud'c te... (Nien giam CNTT Viet Nam 2008). CNTT Viet Nam dat dUdc nhUng ket qua dang ghi nhan, nhUng so vdi Nhat Ban, Han Qud'c, Singapore, Malaysia, Trung Qudc, An Dp... thi van dang cdn mot khoang each rat xa. Vi du, vdi doanh sd 400-500 trieu USD/nam, nganh CNTT cua Viet Nam cdn thap thua An Do tren 80 lan. Mac dii Viet Nam chUa the nghi tdi viec "dudi kip" elc cUdng qud'c hien nay ve CNTT trong mot tUdng lai g in , tuy nhien, Viet Nam dang cd cd hdi ldn de phdt trien ngdnh ndy. Vdi nhip dd tang trUdng cad va sU gia tang nhanh chdng dau tU nUde ngoai vao linh viic CNTT va viin thdng, Viet Nam dang ddi hdi mot so' lUdng ldn nhan liic ed tinh chuyen nghiep rat cao. Mae du dUdc coi la mot diem ngam va la dia diem den ciia nhieu doanh nghiep nUde ngoai nhUng Viet Nam hien dang mang nghjch ly trong thi trUdng lao ddng CNTT; dd la thifa lao dong gian ddn, nhUng lai ludn thieu ngudn nhan liic lam dUde viec, dac biet la lao ddng cd tay nghe vdi chat lUdng cao. Ngoai nhiing nganh nghe quen thude dang thieu lao dong, hien cd nhieu nganh nghe CNTT mdi, rat thieu nhan liie nhU tiep thi, viet sach ky thuat, kiem tra chinh sifa phan mem, giao dich-- dam phan dien tii, giao dieh thUdng mai- thanh toin dien tii v.v. Thiic te nay dang tao sUc ep manh me doi vdi cae ed sd dao tao eiing nhU cae nha quan ly giao due va dao tao. Renesas la mot trong nhUng cdng ty hang d iu the gidi eiia Nhat Ban, chuyen ve thiet ke, san xuat vi mach, nam 2007 da trien khai xay diing Trung tam thiet ke tai TP.HCM, cin tuyen khoang 1.000 ky sU ve thiet ke ban dan. NhUng trong sudt 2 nam tim kiem khoang 500 ky sU cho giai doan dau, cdng ty nay chi tuyen dUde 60 ngUdi Cdn Cdng ty Intel eiia My, sau khi d iu tU dii an 1 ty USD tai TP.HCM, eIn tuyen dung khoang 1.000 ky sU thude elc linh viic dien, dien tii, CNTT, tii ddng hoa va den nam 2011, ngudn nh in liie eua Intel can tuyen se tiep tue tang eao. NhUng khi kiem tra gin 2.000 sinh vien nam cudi thi chi ed 90 sinh vien dat yeu cau tuyen dung. Hien nay, nhu eau thiic te ve nhan liie CNTT d Viet Nam da vUdt qui kha nang dap Ung eiia he thd'ng dao tao. Ngudn nhan liie CNTT Viet Nam ehUa dap Ung dUdc yeu c lu phat trien eua nganh, chUa dap iing dUde nhu clu xa hdi ca ve sd' lUdng va chat lUdng. Chat lUdng ngudn nhan life thap khong chi lam gidm ndng liic canh tranh cua ngdnh CNTT Viet Nam, md cbn gdy lang phi rdt ldn cd vi thdi gian vd tiin ciia. Cho du ed ldi the' chi phi thap, nhUng neu khdng cd lao ddng ky nang va tri thiic phii hdp, thi se khdng cd gia tri dd'i vdi nha d iu tU va chiing ta se mat di cd hdi thu hut dau tU nUde ngoai de tang tde phat trien trong 20 nam tdi. Xac dinh dUde t i m quan trong ciia Cdng nghe thdng tin, chi thi 58CT/TW "Day manh j2ng dung vd phdt trien CNTT phuc vu sii nghiep CNH-HDH' eua Bd SA'29(11+12/2009) OUAN Lt KINH TE VTB NGHIEN Cljnj - TRAP DPI xu THf TOAN CAU VA GIAI PHAP PHAT TRI^N DAT NUOC GIAI DOAN 2010-2025 Chinh tri Dang Cdng san Viet Nam da chi ro " Phdt trien ngudn nhdn liic cho cdng nghe thong tin Id yeu to' then chdt, cd y nghia quyet dinh ddi vdi viec iing dung vd phdt trien CNTT. Tii nhUng chu trUdng cua Dang, Quy hoach phat tr ien ngudn nhan lUc CNTT Viet Nam den nam 2020 dUdc xay diing, Thii tUdng Chinh phu da phe duyet Ke hoach tdng the phdt trien nguon nhdn liic cong nghe thong tin den ndm 2015 vd dinh hiidng den 2020. Quyet dinh cua Chinh phu tao bUdc dot p h i trong xa hoi hoa dao tao nhan liic; day ciing la giai phap kha thi de thu hiit hieu qua cac doanh nghiep, tap doan CNTT nUdc ngoai cd y dinh dau tU tham gia vao td chUe dao tao hoac lien ket dao tao d Viet Nam. Vdi quyet dinh nay, cd the hieu day la chien lUde cua Chinh phu de bien Viet Nam thanh mot cUdng qud'c ve CNTT trong mot tUdng lai khdng xa (Dang CSVN 2000; Thu tudng Chinh phu 2009). Quyet dinh cua Chinh phu dinh rd quan diem, muc tieu, cac nhiem vu va giai phap p h i t trien ngudn nhan liic CNTT Viet Nam den 2020 vdi nhieu nhiem vu cu the bao gdm: Phat trien doi ngu dang vien, giao vien cdng nghe thdng tin; Pha t trien ddi ngii nghien ciiu ve cdng nghe thdng tin; Xay diing va phat tr ien ddi ngii giam ddc cdng nghe thdng tin trong cac cd quan nha nUde; Dao tao eae tai nang ve cdng nghe thdng tin; Dao tao nhan liic t r inh do cao ve cdng nghe thdng tin; Dao tao nghe ve cdng nghe thdng tin; Pha t trien nhan liic cdng nghe thdng tin trong linh viic an ninh-qud'c phdng; Dao tao va bdi dUdng kien thifc cdng nghe thdng tin cho can bd, cdng chiie, vien chifc; Day tin hoc cho sinh vien, hoc sinh cac cap; Phd cap tin hoc cho nhan dan... De bien Viet Nam thanh mot cudng qud'c ve nhan liic CNTT vao nam 2020, Viet Nam se phai ddng thdi tien hanh hai muc tieu: Ldy phdt trien ngudn nhdn liic CNTT CO trinh dp vd chdt liicfng cao lam khdu dot phd vd Ldy nhanh chdng Idm chu thi triidng trong niidc de tiing biidc viing chdc md rdng sang thi triidng khu viic vd todn cdu Idm khdu quyet dinh, tien tdi "xudt khdu" ngudn nhdn liic cdng nghe thdng tin chdt liicfng cao vdo ndm 2020. Neu lam dUdc nhU vay, ke tii nam 2015, Viet Nam se cd kha nang trd t hanh mot trong 70 nUdc pha t t r ien CNTT hang d iu the gidi. Trong Tam nhin den nam 2020, CNTT se la linh vUe ndng cd't de Viet Nam chuyen ddi cd cau kinh te - xa hdi, trd thanh nUdc tien t ien ve phat tr ien kinh te tri thUe va xa hdi thdng tin De thiic hien chien lUdc nay, c ic nganh, cac cap can phai nang cao n h a n thiic ve vai trd ciia CNTT; hoan thien cd che, chinh sach, luat phap; thiic hien tdt elc chien lUdc va quy hoach; tang cUdng td chiic bd may quan ly ciia Nha nUde; ddi mdi md hinh doanh nghiep; md rdng va phat trien thi trUdng CNTT. De dam bad phat trien ngudn nhan lUc CNTT, dap ifng nhu cau trong nUdc va tien tdi xuat khau, c i n cd cae bien phap, giai phap manh, kem theo viec cho phep ap dung mot sd ed che chinh sach dac thii trong dao tao ngudn nhan liic, nha t la dao tao he dai hoc va cao dang CNTT. Nham huy ddng tdi da cae ngudn liic nha nUdc, doanh nghiep va xa hoi d i u tU vao linh viie nay, cd che chinh sach cdi md, thdng thoang hdn trong viec thanh lap cac trUdng dao tao nhan life CNTT dang la ddi hdi can thiet . 3. Ctf sd cho thanh cong va hy vong Xay diing dat nUde theo hudng "Ddn gidu niidc manh" la van de mang tinh chien lUdc dd'i vdi sii pha t tr ien Viet Nam trong tUdng lai. Thiet nghi, dieu quan trpng khi thiic hien hudng di nay la phai nhan rd ldi the so sanh giUa nUde ta vdi cac nude khu vUc va t ren the gidi trong t i m nhin dai han, khdng chi 5-10 nam, ma la 50 nam, t ham chi tdi hang the ky. Chiing ta t ien h a n h cdng nghiep hoa va hien dai hoa dat nudc cimg vdi tr ien khai t ren quy md qud'c gia hang loat cac khu cdng nghiep tap t rung, khu dd thi, khu che xuat. Thiic hien cdng cuoc nay, nha t thiet OUAN LY KINH T£ So29(1U12/2009) xu THf TOAN CAU VA GIAI PHAP PHAT TRif N DAT NUdC GIAI DOAN 2010-2025 NGHIEN CIJ^ - TRAP DPI Q ^ y phai tien hanh chuyen ddi ca ve phong each lanh dao, tU duy, ldi sd'ng va nghe nghiep cho dai bd phan dan eU vdi hang chuc trieu ngUdi dang sinh sd'ng d cac vung ndng nghiep, ndng thdn. Gia nhap WTO, ngudn nhan lUe Viet Nam la ldi the khd cd nUde nao so s i n h dUde. Trong mot dat nUdc tren 86 trieu dan, 63% thuoc do tudi 30-40; cho du vdi xuat phat diem thap, 70% dan sd' thude linh viic ndng nghiep, nhUng thay vao dd, ngUdi Viet lai ra t can cU, thdng minh, chiu khd va ludn sang tao. Ngoai nhUng ndi dung phat trien kinh te da neu, neu cd chinh sach ky thua t va cdng nghiep song hanh diing d i n va hdp ly, chiing ta hoan toan cd the sif dung cd hieu qua cae ngudn lUe trong nUdc, bien nhiing kha nang tiem tang thanh vdn hien thiic de day nhanh tdc do chuyen dieh kinh te Viet Nam, ddng thdi gdp p h l n giai quyet mot each hieu qua Chinh sach Nong nghiep, Nong thon vd Nong ddn (Tam Ndng). De giai quyet cdng an viec lam va giam siic ep xa hoi d khu viic ndng thdn, c in tap trung phat trien manh manh me cdng nghe tham dung lao ddng, nhat la trong cac nganh cdng nghiep phu trd, cdng nghiep che bien va lang nghe truyen thd'ng, de san xuat cae loai hang hoa tieu dimg va xuat khau nham thu hdi vdn nhanh va tao ra t inh phong phii cho thi trUdng hang hoa trong nUde tim kiem va tien tdi dn dinh thi trUdng ngoai nUde vdi nhiing mat hang xuat khau chii liic cd siic canh t ranh cao. Cung vdi tham dung lao ddng, can liu tien phdt trien cong nghe thdm dung tdi nguyen trong nhiing ngdnh cong nghiep then chdt de chuan bi bUdc vao san xuat nhUng mat hang tieu dimg cao cap, cd: chat lUdng eao, phu hdp vdi yeu c lu ve chat lUdng eiia thi trUdng the gidi. Mat khac, cung can phdt trien manh dich vu du lich thdm dung lao dpng tai cac khu cdng nghiep va nhUng dia phUdng cd cae khu vui chdi, giai tri, an dUdng, nghi mat, resort, bai bien, khu du lich, danh t h i n g ciia dat nUdcv.v. Trong phat t r ien cdng nghiep theo hudng hien dai, c i n Uu tien phat trien nhUng nganh cdng nghiep hien dai, cd tinh dot pha; song di len tU mdt ddt niidc nong nghiep, thi viec xdy dUng mdt chien luqc cong nghiep co tinh nhi nguyen hqp ly, lqi CO y nghia thuc ddy sii thdnh cong cda qud trinh cong nghiep hod vd hien dqi hod ddt nUdc (loai cdng nghe thich hdp, bae thap va t rung binh de giai quyet cdng an viec lam chd hdn 70% lao ddng ndng nghiep, giam thieu ap liie xa hdi; tai t rang bi ky thua t va lam hdi sinh cac nganh cdng nghiep xe chieu, nhU khai khoang, md, hoa chat, luyen kim,...phat trien theo cac giai doan cu the) cung cdn duqc tinh den trong giai doan tii nay den ndm 2020. Mae du cdn nhieu khd khan trUde mi t , nhUng thuan ldi va cd hoi ed nhieu dd la: Moi trudng chinh tri xd hpi dn dinh; Tiim ndng tdng trUdng kinh te cao; Thi trUdng npi dia co nhu cdu da dang; Nguon von trong ddn cho ddu tU cbn nhiiu. Trong bd'i canh suy giam kinh t e t o a n clu, gia vat tU nguyen lieu, may mdc, thiet bi xiid'ng thap, nhu eau phat trien dat nUdc c i n nhieu. Mat khic , cac nha d i u tU va tai trd nUde ngoai van tin tUdng vao trien vong phat trien cua Viet Nam, v i n coi Viet Nam la diem den an toan va hap d in . Nhiing dieu nay cho phep chiing ta cd cd sd de can nhac liia chon n h i m phat huy nhiing ldi the chien lUdc trong t i i cd eau nen kinh te. Vdi tam nhin Ddi mdi, thdng qua nhUng chUdng tr inh hanh dong tap trung vao khai thac nhUng ldi the vifa mang tinh lau dai vifa cd tinh kha thi de thiic hien mue tieu dan g i lu nUdc manh; chung ta cd nhieu hy vpng va tin tUdng Viet Nam cd the hoa nhap va b i t kip nhip dp phat trien ciia nen kinh te khu viic va the gidi trong Thien nien ky mdi. SA29(1U12/2009) QUAN Lt KINH Tl MB NGHIEN Cl/U - TRAP DPI xu THf TOAN CAU VA GIAI PHAP PHAT TRif N DAT NLTOC GIAI DOAN 2010-2025 TAI LIEU THAM KHAO 1 Dang Cong san Viet Nam, Ddy manh Ung dung vd phdt trien Cong nghe thong tin phuc vu sii nghiep CNH-HDH, Chi thi 58.CT/TW, Ha Noi, 17/10/2000. 2 Dang Cong san Viet Nam, Vdn kien Hpi nghi Tif TV khoa X, Ha Noi, 2007. 3 Kanayo Nwanze(2009), Phat bieu tai Hoi nghi Bo trUcing Nong nghiep G8, thang 4/2009, FIDA thang 5/2009. '' Quy Tien te The gidi IMF(2009), Trien vpng kinh te the gidi, tai lieu Hoi nghi thifdng nien IMF, Hoa Ky, thang 4 nam 2009. RAND Corporation (2009), "Du bao ve cuoc each mang cong nghe toan cau den nam 2020" Dang tren t rang web: www.Vista.gov.vn, ngay 26 thang 9 nam 2009. Thanh PhUdng, Thanh Y (2009), "De co nhiing chien th ing 30 thang tu vang doi trong xay dUng dat nUdc", Tap chi Thdng tin & Phdt trien, thang 4/2009. Thii tudng Chi'nh phii, Ke hoach tdng the phat trien nguon nhan lUc Cong nghe thong tin den nam 2015 va dinh hudng den nam 2020, Quyet dinh 698/QD-TTg, Ha Noi, 01/6/2009. QUAN Lt KINH it SA29nU12/2009)