Hiệu quả sản xuất và tiêu thụ lúa gạo ở Cần Thơ, đồng bằng sông Cửu Long: Các vấn đề cần được giải quyết

NONG NGHIEP-NONG THON Hieu qua san xudt va tieu thu lua gqo 6 Can Tho, Dong bang song Cifu Long: cac vdn de cdn dupe giai quyet MAI VAN NAM 7 ) dng cdc phiidng phdp thu thap sd' lieu, phdn tich, thdng qua nghien cdu thiic te d •LJ Cdn Thd - mdt trgng diem san xud't ndng nghiep d Dong bdng song CUu Long, tdc gid dd lam ro hieu qud san xud't vd tieu thu lua gqo. Mdt so'gidi phdp nhdm ndng cao hieu qud kinh doanh dd dUdc di xudt. 1. Dat van de Nam 2008, kinh te the gidi rdi vao suy thoai, kinh te Viet Nam ciing khdng nam ngoai ludng xoay cua suy thoai kinh te. Tuy nhien, trong ba khu vUc Idn cua nen kinh te, khu vUc nong nghiep tuy chiem ty trpng nhd va cd to'c dp tang trUdng tha'p hdn hai khu viic cdn lai, nhUng tdng trUdng lai dn dinh hdn. Trong khi khu viic cdng nghiep, xay diing va khu viic dich vu cd td'c dp tang trUdng nam 2008 tbd'p hdn so vdi nam 2006 va nam 2007, thi khu viic ndng, lam nghiep, tbuy san van cd td'c dp tang trUdng cao hdn (3,79% cua nam 2008 so vdi 3,4% cua nam 2007 va 3,69% cua nam 2006) (Pham Quang Dieu va Pham Dd Chi, 2009). Dieu nay cho thay, de nen kinh te Viet Nam thoat khdi tinh trang suy giam kinh te, ndng nghiep phai la mot "tru dd" quan trpng trong cdn suy thoai. Trong cac loai san pham ndng nghiep miii nhpn, liia gao la mat hang cd kim ngach xua't khau cao ciia viing Ddng bang song Cuu Long (DBSCL). Tuy nhien, khi nhin lai boat dpng xud't khau gao nam 2008, chung ta tha'y rang d thdi diem gia gao len cao, ngUdi dan va doanh nghiep lai khd tieu thu dupe gao d thi trUdng xud't khau. Tinh hinh chi dUdc cai thien khi xua't khau gao dUdc cho phep trd lai - khi cd hpi gia len cao da trdi qua. Chinh vi vay, viec phan anh thifc trang tinh hinh san xua't va tieu thu lua giio d DBSCL va tim ra cac bien phap giai quyet la va'n de can dUdc quan tam trong giai doan hien nay, vi nd se cung cap mot cd sd khoa hoc vutng chae giiip DBSCL ndi chung, Viet Nam ndi rieng phdt trien ndng nghiep, gdp phan dUa dat nUdc thodt khdi tinh hinh suy giam kinh te. 2. Phifdng tien va phiftfng phap nghien cijfu 2.1. Thdi gian vd dia diem nghien cUu De tai nghien ciiu hieu qua san xua't va tieu thu Ilia gao dUdc thiic hien tai dia ban thdnh phd' Can Thd, trung tam kinh te - xa hpi ciia vung DBSCL. Thdi gian nghien ciiu dupe tien hanh tU nam 2008 - 2009. 2.2. Muc tieu nghien ciiu De tai nghien cUu nhdm phan tich hieu qua san xua't va tieu thu liia gao d DBSCL, tif dd tim ra mot so' vd'n de can giai quyet. Cu the, de tai se lan lUdt thiic hien nhiing muc tieu sau day: (1) phan tich thiic trang va hieu qua san xua't liia gao; (2) phan tich thuc trang tieu thu liia gao; (3) xac dinh cac van de ton tai va nguyen nhan ciia tdn tai trong san xua't va tieu thu liia gao d Can Thd, DBSCL. 2.3. PhUdng phdp nghien ciiu 2.3.1. PhUdng phdp thu thap so'lieu De tai sU dung ddng thdi hai dang so'lieu, thd ca'p va sd ca'p. Mai Van Nam, TS., Trudng Dili hoc Ciin Thd. 54 Hieu qua san xuat.. - Sd lieu thd cd'p: dUdc thu thap tii cac bao cao dang ky kinh doanh cua Cue Thue, sd lieu ve dien tich, dan so'... trong Nien giam tho'ng ke thanh phd Can Thd, cac sd lieu khac tren bao va tap chi khoa hoc khac. Sd lieu sd cap: so lieu sd ca'p dUdc thu thap thdng qua phdng va'n triic tiep vdi bang cau hdi dupe thiet ke sdn. PhUdng phap Id'y mau phan tang ngau nhien dUdc sii dung de chpn cac dia diem khao sat va de chpn bp ndng dan, thUdng ldi, ngUdi ban le, ngUdi tieu dung, nhd may xay xat va cdng ty ndng nghiep de phdng va'n triic tiep. Bd'n quan (buyen) Vinh Thanh, Cd Dd, Binh Tbuy, Ninh Kieu (phan tang ca'p 1) la 4 dia diem tap trung nhieu hp trdng liia vdi dien tich Idn, san lUdng nhieu nhd't, nang sua't tUdng ddi cao, nhieu thUdng lai dia phUdng, la ndi tap trung nhieu cua thUdng lai ngoai tinh (Vinh Thanh, Cd Dd). Tdng so' mau phdng van la 177 mau bao gdm: 60 hp ndng dan (Vinh Thanh va Cd Dd), 57 hp ngUdi tieu dung (Binh Tbuy, Ninh Kieu), 30 hp bdn le (Binh Tbuy, Ninh Kieu), 30 thUdng lai va nha may xay xat, cdng ty nong nghiep (Cd Do, Vinh Thanh). 2.3.2. Phiidng phdp phdn tich Cac phUdng phap kbda hpe dUdc sU dung de dat dUdc cac muc tieu, cu the: Phiidng phdp phdn tich muc tieu (1): de phan tich thiic trang san xud't lua, phUdng phap phan tich thd'ng ke md ta nhU: phan tich tan so', phifdng phap so sanh so' tUdng dd'i dupe sU dung. Ngodi ra, phUdng phap phan tich ham phan biet dUdc sii dung de phan tich nguyen nhdn gay ra sii khac biet ve hieu qua san xua't liia ciia ndng dan d dia ban nghien citii. Mo hinh phan tich phan biet dUdc diia vdo md binh kinh te lUdng nbU sau: D = bo + b,X, + b.,X, + . . . . + b,X, Trong dd: D: diem phan biet (bien phu thupc). b,: cac he so' hay trong so' phan biet (i = l,n).' X, cac bien doc lap (i = l,n). Bien phu thupc (Y): ldi nhuan cua ndng hp/vu/ha vdi: (1): Ndng hp cd ldi nhuan cao. (2): Ndng hp cd ldi nhuan thap. Bien doc lap dUa vao phan tich trong md hinh: X, X,: Gia ban binh quan X,: Nang suai binh ciia Ilia quan/ha/vu X,: Ngay c6ng/vu/lia X4: Qui md dien tich X5: Sd lao dpng nha X,,: Niim trong liia X7: Chi phi Siin xuai binh quan/vu/ha Trong mo hinh phan tich, be sdhay trpng sd b, dUdc Udc lUdng de phan biet sU khac nhau giUa cdc nhdm diia vdo gia tri cua ham phan biet. Dieu nay xua't hien khi ty so giUa tong binh phUdng giUa cac nhdm va tdng binh phUdng trong tUng nhdm cd diem phan biet Idn nhat. PhUdng phdp phdn tich muc tieu (2): de phan tich thiic trring tieu thu lua gao. phUdng phap phan tich kenh phan phdi difdc sif dung de diit dUdc muc tieu nay. PhUdng phdp phdn tich muc tieu (3): de xac dinh nhUng tdn tai va nguyen nhan trong san xua't va tieu thu lua gao, phUdng phap thd'ng ke md ta (so sanh, tan sd, kiem dinh), phifdng phdp phan tich kenh phan phd'i va phan tich tan so' se lam can cU de nhan dien nbUng tdn tai va nguyen nhan trong kenh phan phdi lua gao hien nay. 3. Ket qua nghien cufu va thiio lu(in 3.1. Thuc trang vd hieu qud san xudt Ida 3.1.1. Sdvu trdng trong ndm Trdng 2 vu/ndm chiem ty trpng Idn nhii't trong cdc vu d Can Thd, chiem 76,7%. day cung la dac diem chung cua cac hp trdng lua khu viic DBSCL. Rieng viec trdng 3 vu thi chiem 21,7% cdc hp trdng lua, da sd cac hp nay thupc buyen Cd Dd. Cu the, vu ddng xuan 100% hp cd trdng vd he thu cd 98"» hp Nghi4n cM Kinh 14 s6 373 - Thing 6/2009 55 Hieu qua san xuat . . . trdng. rieng vu lap vu (thu dong) cd 22% hp trdng. Cac hp trdng 3 vu do chu dpng dUdc viec dua nUdc vao rupng. Ben canh dd, d khu viic Cd Dd da't thich hdp cho trdng vu 3 do khdng hi dich benh nhieu, ciing vdi viec sii dung may.gat dap lien hdp. nen d dia ban nay chi phi nhan cong khong la va'n de quan tam nha't cua nong hp. 3.1.2. Gid'ng lua trdng Trong tdng 132 lUdt trdng lua tren tdng 60 hp thi lua thdm dac san chiem khoang 30% cdc lUdt trdng va tap trung chu yeu vao vu ddng xuan. Vu ddng xuan cd 67% hp trdng lua thdm (40 hp trdng), he thu cd 3% hp trdng lua thdm, thu dong 1,3% hp trdng lua thdm. Phan Idn ndng dan chpn nhUng gid'ng lua nang sua't cao, thdi gian sinh trUdng ngdn nhu IR50404, OM1490, OM2517, OM2718, OMCS2000, OM3238, v.v. Da phdn d cdc vu he thu, thu dong, ndng ddn diu trdng lua thUdng IR50404 chdt lUdng thap, khd xudt khdu. Giai thich cho viec nay la do cac gid'ng liia chat lUdng cao nhU Jasmine 85 khi trdng phai cd thdi tiet pbii hdp (gid'ng thdi tiet vu ddng xuan), tieu chuan phdn bdn, thud'c rat nghiem ngat, nen chi cd nhUng hp ndng dan cd vd'n va cd ky thuat mdi chpn gid'ng lua nay trdng. 3.1.3. Cdc khoan chi phi Nhin chung chi phi trung binh ciia vu ddng xuan cao nha't trong cac vu, tdng chi phi trung binh vu dong xuan la 18.317.000 ddng/vu/ha. Vu ddng xuan chi phi cao la do tren 60% ndng hp dUdc thd'ng ke la trdng liia thdm cha't lupng cao trong vu nay nen ndng hp phiii dam bao du dieu kien ve phan, thud'c, lam da't,...vi vay chi phi d vu nay cao hdn so vdi 2 vu cdn lai. Chi phi vu he thu cung xap xi 16.842.000 ddng/vu/ha, thap nha't la vu thu ddng vdi khoang 13.000.000 ddng/vu/ha. Cu the: Chi phi gid'ng: gia liia gid'ng cao nha't la vu ddng xuan, do phan Idn cac ndng bp trdng lua thdm vao vu nay nen miic gia vao khoang 8.083 ddng/kg. Tuy gid'ng cd gia cao vao vu ddng xuan nhUng van re hdn gid liia gid'ng thdm ban ra ciia cac cong ty nong nghiep (cac cdng ty da phan ban ra gia trung binh 10.000 ddng/kg). Vi ly do nay nen viec chpn gid'ng trdng ciia cac hp ndng dan la do cac vu trUdc de lai chiem 30°o, tiep theo la cung khu vUc trdng 3S.3''-o de giam bdt cdc khoan chi phi thay vi mua gid'ng cdng ty. Them vao ly do khac khien ndng hp khdng mua gid'ng cua cdng ty hoac trung tam ban gid'ng la vi khi ndng hp trdng theo gid'ng dUdc khuyen khich cua trung tam hay cdng ty chi la hinh thifc trdng thif nghiem, tuy cd ky hdp ddng bao tieu san phdm vdi cdc cong ty, nhUng sau khi thu hoqch thiidng do yeu td khdch quan hay chu quan lam cho lua khong dat tieu chudn vd bi gidm gid so vdi hdp ddng ban ddu. Day la mot trong nhUng ban che trong khdu quan ly, dam bao dau ra cho san pham lua gao cua cac cd quan lUdng thiic cd lien quan. Chi phi nhdn cong: vu he thu Id cao nha't 2.164.000 ddng/ha. Do vu he thu la mua mUa tren dia ban thdnh phd' Can Thd, nen chi phi thue nhan cdng vu nay tang hdn vu ddng xuan gan 7,5%. Chi phi nhan cdng vu thu ddng do liia trdng vu nay khi thu hoach thudng bi nga sat rupng nen chi phi thue cdng gat, dap, van chuyen se cao hdn vu khac. Vu ddng xuan chi phi nhdn cdng tha'p hdn so vdi 2 vu cdn lai do dac thu vu dong xuan luon thuan ldi hdn ve van chuyen (it mUa, de van chuyen), tien cdng gat liia difng ciing tha'p hdn so vdi liia nga. Chi phi phdn bdn vd thuoc trii sdu: vu chiem chi phi Idn nha't la vu thu ddng, 5.827.000 ddng/vu/ha. Do vu thu ddng thdi tiet luc ndng dm, liic mUa nhieu, mua nifdc nen lUdng phdn bdn phai sif dung nhieu hdn so vdi cac vu khac. Rieng ve thud'c trif sau benh, theo tinh hinh chung tif cac nong hp thi vu ddng xuan nam nay cac hp trdng lua thdm bi dich benh nhieu hdn nhiing nam trUdc (benh dao on, ray nau,...), them vao dd do hau het cac nong hp hien tai khdng cdn lam cd thu cdng ma ban het sif dung thud'c xit cd nen chi phi cac khoan thuoc nay deu tang. 56 Nghien cuv Kinh I4 so 373 • Thang 6 2009 Hieu qua san x u a t . . . Chi phi khdc (nhU van chuyen, lam dd't): theo diic thu lam dat cua vu he thu phai qua nhieu cdng doan cdy xdi, bUa, true nen tdn chi phi cho phan lam da't Idn bdn so vdi cac vu khac. Rieng vu thu ddng chi phi nay tha'p nha't do cac hp ndng dan thUdng khdng thue lam da't (sa ehay) vao vu nay. 3.1.4. Ndng sudt lua Vu ddng xudn: trong cac vu trdng lua tai cac dd'i tUdng phdng van thi vu dong xuan cd nang suat lua trung binh cao nhat/vu tifdng Ung 8,1 tan/ha, cao hdn nang sua't chung ciia vu ddng xuan trung binh tai thanh phd Can Thd nam 2007 (6,803 tan/ha) mifc chenh lech xa'p xi 1,2 ta'n/ha. Nhin chung vu ddng xuan nang sua't cao la mat bang chung cua ta't ca cac hp trdng liia khu viic DBSCL do dieu kien khi hau thdi tiet thich hdp, it dich benh va sau ray tren tdng the. Cac hp trdng cd nang sua't chUa cao Id do gidng trdng cua cac hp la cac gid'ng cao san ndng sua't khdng cao nhUng gia thanh cao bdn cdc loai lua khdc. Do dd doanh thu tU vu dong xuan ciing khdng chenh lech nhieu giUa cdc ndng hp. Vu he thu: nang suat trdng vu ndy tha'p nhat la 2.7 td'n/ba, cao nhat la 12,5 ta'n/ha, nang suii't trung binh la 6,4 tan/ha (cao hdn iiiing suat chung cua vu he thu trung binh ca tlianb phd Can Thd: 4,6 ta'n/ha); so vdi vu ddng xuan, nang suat trung binh he thu dat dUdc bang khoang 79% tdng nang suat ciia vu ddng xuan. Do dieu kien thdi tiet vu he thu chu yeu thich hdp cho trdng lua thUdng nen da phan nong hp khdng trdng liia cao siin. Vu Idp vu (thu ddng): nang sua't trung binh cua hp trdng lua vu 3 xa'p xi 5,8 ta'n/ha. Ndng sua't khdng kem hdn nhieu so vdi vu he thu, khoang 90% nang sua't vu he thu. Nang sua't tha'p nha't vu thu ddng cao hdn nang sua't tha'p nha't cua vu he thu. Them vao dd, ndng suat trung binh cua cac hp trdng Ilia thu ddng tang gan gap ddi so vdi ndng sua't liia vu 3 chung cua ca tinh (3,7 tiVn/ha). Day la dau hieu dang mifng cho xu hifdng trdng liia vu 3 ciia nong hp. Tuy nhien nhU da thdng ke d tren chi cd 21,7% hp trdng vu 3 do dieu kien thdi tiet va thue nhan cdng khdng cd (hau bet di Idm xa do khong Idm lua vu 3). 3.L5. Gid bdn Gia ban lua trung binh cua lua thdm trong cac vu la 4.607 ddng/kg Ida dac san: gid ban lua thUdng trung binh la 4.283 dong/kg. re bdn gia ban Ida thdm trung binh la 323 ddng/kg. MUc chenh lech gid ca giiia lua thdm va lua thUdng khong Idn dang ke. Cu the nhu sau: - Lua thdm: gia ban d vu ddng xuan cao nha't 5.020 ddng/kg. cao hdn 2 vu cdn lai khoang 200 ddng/kg - 1.020 ddng/kg. Do vu ddng xuan lua thdm dUdc trdng nang suat vd cha't lupng dupe dam bao, dac biet la dung theo yeu cau chat lUdng ve dp khd cua lua xay gfio xuiVt khau nen gia cao. Rieng 2 vu cdn lai do khi hiiu DBSCL vao mua cua 2 vu he thu va thu ddng mifa nhieu do dd cd ra't it hp trdng (5"o hp trdng) vi cha't lUdng vd pham chii't deu khong cao nen gia Ida tha'p hdn vu ddng xuan nhieu. chenh lech gia ban cua thu ddng vii dong xuan 1.020 ddng/kg giam xii'p xi 20".. gia ban. - Lua thiidng: van theo xu hudng chung gia lua vu ddng xuan van cao so vdi gia ban cua cac vu khac. Gia ban cua vu he thu giam giin 18% so vdi gia ban cua vu dong xuan vdi gia tri giam trung binh la 850 ddng/kg. 3.1.6. Ndi bdn Theo ket qua nghien cUu cd 96,7% ndng bp ban lua tai nha. 3,3%) van chuyen den nha may xay xat hay cdng ty nong nghiep. Tren 90% nong hp chpn thUdng lai de ban lua dau tien cua ndng hp. Nhu cau.cua ndng hp la ban difdc lua md khdng phai van chuyen va chi tra chi phi van chuyen. ThUdng lai dia phifdng thu mua liia bdng tau, ghe trpng tai 10 - 20 tan. Them vao dd, he thdng kenh rach cua dia ban Can Thd rat thuan ldi nen cac thifdng lai se dl dang thu mua tan nha ndng bp. Do dd ndi dUdc lUa chpn giao dich mua - ban dien ra d nha ndng hp chiem ty le Idn. Nghien CM Kmh 14 so 373 - Thing 6/2009 57 Hieu qua san xuat. . . 3.1.7. Thdi gian bdn Nhan xet chung da phan cac nong hp ban lua ngay sau khi thu hoach ke ca liia thdm va lua thudng. Trong dd ban nhanh nha't la vu ddng xuan do vu ndy lua phdi nhanh khd, cdng vdi chat lifdng lua td't nen thUdng lai den mua rat nhanh trong vdng 1 tuan la cac hp ban xong lua. Vu he thu lau hdn do thdi tiet mUa nhieu liia phdi lau khd; cdc hp ban che td'i da viec sa'y liia do se lam giam cha't lUdng lua va gia ban tha'p, them vao dd Id khoiin chi phi sa'y liia. Liia thdm de bdn va ban dupe sdm hdn liia thUdng. Ben canh yeu to' cha't lUdng lua phu bpp de ban thi cdn cac ly do khac de nong hp bdn lua bao gdm: (1) chi tieu tra cac khoan nd vat tu nong nghiep trong suo't cac vu mua (61%); (2) hp nong dan khdng cd kho chifa (11%). (3) can vdn cho vu sau (8%). 3.1.8. Ldi nhuan Tudng Ung vdi mUc chi phi cao nhd't d vu dong xuan thi ldi nhuan cua vu ddng xudn cung thupc vi tri cao nha't. Trung binh trong cac hp dieu tra thi ldi nhuan/ha rupng trdng Ida cua vu ddng xuan la khoang 22 trieu/ba/vu. So vdi mUc chenh lech giiia chi BANG 1: Ket qua phi va ldi nhuan thi ty le chenh lech ve ldi nhuan cao hdn, dan den he qua la cac ho ndng dan van tap trung chu yeu trdng vu ddng xuan vi cd ty sua't ldi nhuan cao. Danh gia ve ty sua't ldi nhuan thi ca 3 vu deu cd ty sua't ldi nhuan cao (tren 0,5). Ciing theo tinh hinh chung ve chi phi va ldi nhuan ty sua't trdng lua vu ddng xuan cd kha nang ldi nhieu hdn so vdi 2 vu cdn lai la 1,2, tha'p nha't vdn la vu thu dong vdi mdc sinh ldi 0,73 (73%). Nhin chung so sanh ve ldi nhuan, chi phi, ty sua't sinh ldi cua tUng vu thi ta tha'y day la li do khien cdc hp trdng it hoac khdng trdng vu3 . 3.1.9. Phdn tich sii khdc biet ve ldi nhuan trdng lua giUa cdc ndng hd Ket qua kiem dinh gia thuyet ham phan biet ta tha'y: Wilks' Lamda = 0,231 chuyen thanh dai lUdng chi - square la 63,814 vdi bac tu do la 7; ddng thdi Sig. = 0,000 « mUc y nghia o%. TU dd, chung ta cd the bac bd gia thuyet H, nghia la sU khdc biet cd y nghia thd'ng ke giUa 2 nhdm. Dieu ndy ddng nghia vdi viec so' lieu cung cap du cd sd de ehay hdm phan biet. Ket qua phan tich ham phan biet nhu sau: mo h i n h p h a n bie t Hien X, X: X, X. Xs x„ XT (iiiii thich Giii biin Niing suai Ngay cdng Dien tich liia Lao ddng nha Nam trdng liia Chi phi siin xuiii Wilks' Lambda 0,901 0,590 0,875 0,823 0,991 0,991 0,946 F 5,188 32,665 6,743 10,132 0,419 0,417 2,694 Sig. 0,027 0,000 0,013 0,003 0,520 0,522 0,107 Ngudn: Sd lieu difiu tra ndng hd, 2009. Dua vao he so' tUdng quan Canonical correlation (= 0,877) ta cd he so' xdc dinh bang 79,6%, cd nghia la cd 79,6% cdc bien doc lap anh hUdng den sii khac biet cua 2 nhdm ldi nhuan trong mo hinh, cdn 19,4% do cac nhan to'khac khong nghien cifu trong md hinh. Neu xet d mifc y nghia 5%o ta cd cac bien doc lap sail cd the dUa vao md hinh: Y = 0.901 X, + 0,59 X, + 0,875 X,, + 0,823 X, +0,946 X, 58 Nghi4n cuv Kinh te s6 373 • Thing 6/2009 Hieu qua san xuat. . Vdi Sig. 0,027) (0,000) (0,013) (0,003) (0,107) Ket qua phan tich cho tha'y cac bien: gia ban, nang suat binh quan, dien tich, chi phi Siin xuat va ngay cong lao dpng cd y nghia thdng ke tao nen sii khdc biet trong ldi nhuan cao hay tha'p cua ndng hp. Ngay cong lao dpng dUdc sif dung d ndng hd cd dp dung tien bp khoa hpe ky thuat so vdi nong hp chua ap dung tien bp khoa hpe ky thuat khdng cd sii khac biet cd y nghia thdng ke; dieu nay cho tha'y phan Idn nong bd chUa dau tu dang ke vao ap dung tidn bd khoa hpe ky thuat trong san xuat Ida. BANG 2: Ma t r a n tifdng quan cua cac b ien dvfa vao mo hinh Bien XI X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 XI 1,00 0,06 -0,16 0,13 -0,13 -0,28 0,53 X2 1,00 0,28 -0,12 -0,15 -0,35 0,55 X3 1,00 -0,55 -0,34 0,07 0.03 X4 1,00 0,10 0,03 -0.03 X5 1.00 0,02 -0,23 X6 1,00 -0.18 X7 • • - — 1.00 Nguon: so' lieu dieu tra ndng hd, 2009. Ma tran tUdng quan trong cac nhdm ra't tha'p giUa cac bien doc lap cd y nghia dUdc dUa vao md hinh, nen cd the ndi rdng bien tUdng cdng tuyen khdng dang ke; trong dd gid ban va dien tich trdng lua cd be so' tUdng quan dUdng. NhU vay, gid bdn vd san lUdng lua khdng dn dinh la nguyen nhdn chinh tqo nen sii khdc biet vi ldi nhuan giiia cdc ndng hd, dieu ndy cho thdy viijc trong lua ciia nong ddn d vung nghien ciiu cdn mang tinh tii phdt, chiia diidc quy hoqch vd chUa nhdn dUdc sii hudng ddn hay dinh hiidng vl md ddy du. tii cdc cd quan quan ly nong nghiep chdc ndng. BANG 3: Cac yeu to a n h hifcfng den hieu quii san xuat liia giijfa hai nhom nong ho t h u n h a p t h a p va thu n h a p cao Hang muc Giii biin (X,) Niing suai (X2) Ngay cdng (X,) Dien tich liia (Xj) Lao dcing nha (X,) Niim trong liia (X^) Chi phi Siin xuiii (X,) Don vi nghin ddng tan ngay ha ngay ndm nghin dong Thu nhap trung binh Cao 4,7 8,1 12,2 12,6 2.7 29 16.538 Thap 4,4 6,0 5,4 23,9 3 26,5 19.006.2 Dp lech chuiin Cao 0,4 1.2 11,8 8,7 1,5 14,7 4.418 Thap 0,5 1,4 . 4,8 15,5 1,7 11.7 6.065.7 Tri sd Z 0.197" O.lSl"" -0.138" -0.139" -0.113"^ -1.376"- 980' Ngudn: s6' lifiu dieu tra ndng hd, 2009. muc y nghia 1%; **: muc y nghTa 5%; *: muc y nghia 10%, ns: khdng cd y nghia thdng ke. Ket qua nghien cdu cho tha'y, ndng hd thu nhap cao cd gia bdn liia cao hdn hp cd thu nhap tha'p, mifc chenh lech trung binh khoang 300 ddng/kg liia. Chenh lech gia ban lua giUa hai nhdm ndng bp do nong ho cd thu nhap tha'p thieu phiidng tien diing trong Nghi4n cuv Kinh 14 so 373 • Thing 6 2009 59 Hieu qua san xuat. . . san xudt, che bien vd bdo quan, van chuyen, thieu thong tin thi trUdng, thieu vdn cdn bdn lua ngay sau thu hoqch nen bi thUdng ldi ep gid; nong hd cd thu nhap tha'p khong cd diiu kien dp dung tien bd khoa hgc ky thuat trong san xudt vd sau thu hoqch, nen ndng sudt vd chdt lUdng lua khdng cao, chi phi san xudt tdng cdng Id nguyen nhdn gdy ra sii khdc biet ve hieu qud trdng lua giUa hai nhdm nong hd. 3.2. ThUc trang tieu thu Ida gqo Nhin chung, kinh doanh ban le lua gao d dia bdn nghien ciiu la kinh doanh qua cdc cifa hang, dai ly nhd le hoac cifa hang tap hda kiem mua ban liia gao. Phan Idn cac cifa hang kinh doanh liia gao mang tinh tii phat, cd qui md nhd, dien tich trung binh 29,13 m'^ chiem 53,5% cac cifa hang kinh doanh trong mang ludi ban le liia gao. Hau het lua gao d vung nghien cUu dUpc tieu thu tU ndng hp (Ida) den tay ngUdi tieu dung cudi cung (giio, tam, cam,...) qua kenh phan phd'i la kenh ddi (kenh day dit). Cii hai loai liia thdm va Ida thUdng. tren 85% ndng hp chpn ban cho thUdng lai. Ket qua nghien cUu cho tha'y, hai tuyen kenh phan phd'i lua gao cho ngifdi tieu dung noi dia va cho xua't khau khdng cd mdi lien SO DO 1: Kenh phan pho'i lua gao tii non ket. San pham liia gao tii cdng ty xua't khau va cdng ty ndng nghiep khdng ban lai cho ngUdi budn si hay ngUdi budn le ndi dia. Do dd, khdng cd sU ddng nha't ve chat lUdng gao xuat khau va gao tieu diing trong nUdc; dieu nay gay cho ngUdi tieu dung trong nifdc cd tam ly thich sif dung gao cd ngudn gd'c nUdc ngodi nhu Thai Lan, Campuchia, ... tai thi trUdng ndi dia; thiic te tinh trang nay gay them nhieu khd khan trong quan ly he thd'ng phan pho'i lua gao ciia cac cd quan lUdng thiic va quan ly ndng nghiep. Tieu thu lua gqo tii ndng ddn den ngUdi tieu diing cudi cung phdi thdng qua nhiiu khdu trung gian trong cung mdt nhdnh kenh phdn phdi cd the Idm gidm chdt lUdng san phdm, tdng chi phi marketing vd gidm hieu qud san xudt tieu thu lua gqo, kenh phdn phdi kem hieu qud. Kenh phdn phdi lua gqo cdn ddn le, thieu lien ket giUa tuyen kenh phdn phdi lua gqo xudt khdu vd ndi dia, thieu tdng kho lUdng thiic du trU lua gqo xudt khdu nen cdc tdc nhdn trong kenh phdn phdi ludn bi ddng trong san xudt vd tieu thu lua gqo, nhdt la ndng ddn ludn gap khd khdn vd rdi ro trong trong lua khi gid gqo thi trUdng the gidi gidm. g ho den ngifcfi tieu diing tai Can Thcf 100% Xui't khau Nong hp B i n '' Xuat khau 24,3% Tieu dung Ndng hd khdc 5,7% 4,6% TU xay xdt bdn 60 Nghi4n ctiu Kinh t4's6 373 • Thing 6/2009 Hieu qua san xuat.. 3.3. Cdc vdn de cdn dUdc gidi quyet trong san xudt, tieu thu Ida gqo 3.3.1. Cdc vdn de vi san xudt, tieu thu cd lien quan triic tiep den cdc tdc nhdn trong kenh phdn phd'i lua gqo • Ndng hd Vi san xudt: cd hai va'n de chinh can dUdc giai quyet trong san xuat liia gao: (1) va'n de ve gid'ng: tuy da xua't hien xu hudng trdng liia thdm cbd't lUdng cao trong ndng dan, nhUng ty le ndng dan sif dung gid'ng lua chat lUdng cao trong san xua't cdn chiem ty trpng rat it (30% cho vu ddng xuan vd 3% cho vu he thu). Da phan nong dan sif dung Ilia thUdng IR50404, cbd't lUdng tha'p, thi trUdng xua't khau ban che va khdng on dinh. Day ciing chinh la mot trong nhflng nguyen nhan khien ndng ddn bi dpng trong van de thUdng lUdng gia ca, va xa hdn khien cho xua't kha'u gao Viet Nam tuy nhieu ve so' lUdng nhUng kim ngach lai chUa xUng tam. (2) Va'n de ve ifng dung tien bp khoa hpe ky thuat vdo san xua't liia: da phan cac ndng hp tiii DBSCL it cap nhat va ifng dung cac iing dung khoa hpe ky thuat mdi, gidng mdi, chu yeu la thu cdng trong gieo sa, bdn phan, xit thud'c... la tdn tai Idn nha't trong qud trinh san xuat, bao quan sau thu hoach. Doi vdi mot sd nong hp cd dieu kien trdng cac gidng cao siin, cd cha't lUdng cao xua't khau thi liii thieu cdn bp ky thuat hUdng dan cu the. Cdc chUdng trinh tap huan ky thuat mdi, gidng mdi cdn ban che. Vi tieu thu: va'n de bi ep gia la va'n de 16n trong qua trinh tieu thu ma cac hp ndng dan quan tam va can cd sU hd trd tif cdc cd quan qurin ly chifc nang khac.Trong qua trinh tU san xuii't den khau tieu thu ndng hp thUdng thu dpng trong va'n de chpn dd'i tUdng mua ban, phan Idn la mua - bdn ngdu nhien - 95% ban cho thUdng lai. Do dd, van de Idn cita ndng hp la dd bi thifdng lai ep gia, thieu mdi trifdng kinh doanh cfinb tranh lanh manh. NgUdc lai neu khdng chpn bdn cho thUdng lai, h.fa chpn tiep theo cita nong hp la Nghien cM Kmh te so 373 • Thing 62009 cac cong ty ndng nghiep, tuy nhien viec hdp ddng bao tieu cua cdng ty ndng nghiep van thUdng xuyen khdng dUdc tiic hien dung va thUdng thay ddi tuy theo bien dpng thi trUdng. Them vao dd. gia ca liia gao bien dpng lien tuc ma khdng cd sii dieu tiet vi md kip thdi cua cac cd quan quan ly. thudng lam cho cac hp ndng dan v6 cung khd khan. Ndng ddn trdng lua trong trang nhieu rdi ro do thieu mang lUdi phdn phd'i. tieu thu lua gao lanh manh. • ThUdng ldi: nhflng ban che trong cd sd ha tang, ky thuat cua thUdng lai: cac thifdng lai cd Ipi the Idn Id thu mua difdc da sd Ida sau thu hoach cua ndng hp do phifdng tien thu mua nhd (10 - 30 tan). Tuy nhien van de tdn tai Idn nha't cua cac thUdng lai la ve cd sd ha tang, vat cha't dung de thu mua va bao quan lua cdn rd't thd sd. Vdi tai trpng phUdng tien thu mua nbd, thieu kho bdi chda lua dii trd, phUdng tien phdi sdy bdo quan nen thUdng gap khd khan ve chat lUdng lua giio tha'p, khdng ddng nha't. dac biet la vao mua mUa. • Nhd mdy xay xdt: da phan nha may xay xdt cd qui md nbd, may mdc va thiet bi cu. lac hau nen thUdng khdng dap Ung dUdc nhu cau xay xat ve sd lupng cung nhU ve chat lupng, phdm chat gao cho thi trUdng ndi dia cung nhu xua't khau. • Cdng ty ndng nghiep xudt khdu: cac hdp ddng gifla cdng ty nong nghiep xuat khdu va ndng hp (gid'ng thdm Jasmine va thdm khac) thUdng khdng dUpc thiic hien dung. Viec buy hay thay ddi dieu khoan deu do ddn phUdng ben cdng ty hoac nong hp thay ddi, ma khdng he cd sii tbda thuan lai gifla 2 ddi tUpng va khong cd quan nao can thiep den. Khi gid ca lua g.ao cua thi trUdng giiim xud'ng thi cdng ty khong mUa hoac giam gia; khi gia tang thi van mua theo hdp ddng. Nguyen nhan la do da phan cac cdng ty ndng nghiep xuat khau vi\n cdn kha bi dpng trong viec xuat khau gao va quan ly chat lUdng gao xua't khau. Quy trinh xuat khau gao hien nay thUdng la cdng ty nh:in dat 61 Hieu qua san xuat . . . hang tfl phia cac dd'i tdc d nUdc ngoai, sau dd mdi trien khai thu mua theo san lUdng va chat lupng gao dat dUdc yeu cau cua ddi tdc, lam cho kenh phan phd'i lua gao ludn ma't dn dinh vd bi dpng. 3.3.2. Cdc vdn di vi quan ly ciia cdc cd quan chdc ndng Ngoai van de kenh phan phd'i lua gao hien nay qua rdm ra, qua nhieu trung gian, van de noi com khdc trong tieu thu lua gao la thieu tinh lien ket gifla kenh phan pho'i lua gao xuat khau va lua gao tieu dung ndi dia; dieu nay, lam cho kenh phan phdi liia gao thieu tinh ddng bp, thieu tinh mem deo, thieu tinh chiu diing va kem canh tranh khi gap cu so'c thi trUdng. Thieu xdy diing chien lUdc, dii bao; thieu ehflc nang gidm sdt va dieu tiet vi md trong san xuat va tieu thu lua gao kem hieu qua ciia cac cd quan quan ly lUdng thiic chUc nang, lam cho ndng dan trdng lua gap nhieu rui ro vd khd khan, miing ludi phan phdi lua gao kem bieu qua vd thieu tinh an toan. 4. Cac giai phap de xuat 4.1. Gidi phdp ve gidng vd dp dung tien bo khoa hgc ky thuat vdo san xudt Ilia De khuyen khich ndng ddn trdng cdc gid'ng tot. chat lifdng cao xua't khau, can trien khai quy hoach vung trdng lua gid'ng, lua nguyen lieu xua't khau; can day manh cac cbifdng trinh hd trd ndng dan dp dung cac tien bp khoa hpe ky thuat vao san xua't ndng nghiep; can cd sU phdi hdp chat che gifla doanh nghiep va ndng dan trong chpn Ufa gidng phu hdp khi trdng vd bao tieu san pham. 4.2. Gidi phdp ve tdng cUdng mdi lien ket giiia ndng dan vd doanh nghiep Dd tranh trUdng hdp ddn phUdng cha'm dflt hdp ddng. va de nong dan an tam ve gia ca, trong dieu khoiin hdp ddng, nen cd nhflng dieu khoan phat vi pham va khi ky ket hdp ddng can ky ket dUdi sif chflng kien cita cd (luan nha nifdc cd tham quyen. Cac cd quan quan ly ehflc nang can tang cUdng giam sat va dieu tiet vi md, nham tao mdi trUdng san xud't kinh doanh thuan ldi trong san xua't va tieu thu lua gao. 4.3. Gidi phdp ve xdy ditng tong kho che bien vd dU trii lua gqo tqi vung trgng diem sdn xudt lua De doanh nghiep chu dpng trong viec xud't khau gao, doanh nghiep can xdy diing cac tdng kho che bien va dii trfl liia gao dieu hda d cac cdc vung trpng diem san xua't lua nhfl Hau Giang, Ddng Thap, An Giang, Kien Giang,.... Khi cd tdng kho che bien va dfl trfl lua gao se gdp phan dam bao kha nang thu mua lua gao cho ndng dan kip thdi, kha nang xud't khau gao cho dd'i tac dung theo hdp ddng, tang ndng liic canh tranh. Khi cd tdng kho che bien va dii trfl lua gao dieu hda, doanh nghiep se thay ddi dfldc cdch thflc kinh doanh truyen thd'ng nhfl hien nay, ky hdp ddng xua't khdu rdi mdi trien khai thu mua lua gao. 4.4. Gidi phdp ve hoan thien kenh phdn phoi lua gqo Can xay diing cac cdng ty ndng nghiep chuyen phdn phd'i si cho ngUdi ban le nham dam bao dUdc md'i lien ket chat che va thdng suo't tU budn si - budn le, kiem soat hieu qua mang ludi phan phd'i lua gao; can hoan thien vd tai can true mang ludi ban le lua gao, trong dd can phat trien ban le gao hang hda trong he thd'ng sieu thi, phdt trien he thdng cUa hang ban le lua gao cua cac cdng ty lUdng thiic; can xay diing mo'i lien ket linh boat gifla kenh phan pho'i lua gao noi dia vdi xuat khau, giam bdt cac tac nhan trung gian; can tang cifdng ehflc nang giam sat, dieu tiet vi mo cita cdc cd quan quan ly lUdng thiic ve hoat dpng cua cac tac nhan trong kenh phan pho'i lua gao. 5. Ket luan De lua gao trd thanh mot "tru dd" giiip nen kinh te nUdc nha thoat khdi tinh trang suy giiim kinh te, nhflng va'n de cdn tdn dpng trong qua trinh san xua't, tieu thu liia 62 Nghi4n CM Kinh te so 373 - Thing 6/2009 Hieu qua san xuat... gao tai dia ban nghien eflu va DBSCL can dUdc giai quyet triet de. De thiic hien dUdc dieu dd, can cd sfl chung tay lien ket gifla 4 nha: ndng dan - doanh nghiep - nha khoa hoc - nha nfldc. Van de ndi com trong san xuat va tieu thu lua gao d DBSCL ndi rieng va Viet Nam ndi chung Id thieu lien ket gifla doanh nghiep va nong dan, thieu ehflc nang giam sat va dieu tiet vl md cua cac cd quan quiin ly ehflc nang; tfl dd dan den nhflng tdn tai khdc, nhfl ndng dan thieu dp dung tien bp khoa hpe ky thuat, thieu thdng tin thi trfldng, thieu lien ket vdi doanh nghiep; cdn cdc doanh nghiep thieu lien ket vdi ndng dan, thieu xuc tien thfldng mai, thieu dii bdo thi trUdng, thieu tinh chien lUdc trong kinh doanh. Xay dflng tdng kho che bien va dii trfl lua gao dieu hda la ra't can thiet, gdp phan giai quyet va'n de tdn tai ve tbfla thieu trong cung - cau lua gao tren thi trUdng, tdng tinh canh tranh trong xua't khau gao; gdp phan binh dn gid cii lua gao, giup ndng ddn va doanh nghiep tang mdi lien ket trong san xuat va tieu thu san pham nhat la an tam kbi ky hdp ddng bao tieu. Song song dd, can day manh cac chUdng trinh bo trd va chuyen giao tien bp khoa hpe ky thuat cho ndng dan; dau tu cdc khau sau thu hoach, ciii tien cd sd vat chat cho cac nha may xay xat. cac cd sd bao quan va che bien lua gao; va rat can tai cau true ehflc nang boat dpng cua cdc cd quan quan ly Ifldng thflc hien nay./. TAI LIEU THAM KHAO 3. Cue Thdng ke thanh phd Can Tho (2007). Nien gidm thdng ke thdnh pho Cdn Tha ndm 2007. 4. Mai Viin Nam (2008). Gido trinh kinh te luong. Nxb Van hda Thdng tin. 5. Pham Quang Dieu va Phiim Dd Chi (2009). "Ndng nghiep tru dd trong con suy thoiii". Thai hdo kinh teSdi Con. 18-2009, tr 42-44. 6. Vd Thi Lang, Ngd Thi Thanh Triic, Huynh Thi Dan Xuan, Mai Van Nam (2008). "Nghien cuu so sanh md hinh siin xuat lua theo "Ba giiim. ba tang" va md hinh truyen thdng d ddng biing sdng Ciru Long", trong siich do Mai Vim Nam chu bien, Ca sd cho phdi Irieii doanh nghiep vi'ra rd nhd vd nong ho d ddng hdng sdng Ci'ai Long. Nxb Giiio Due, tr 185-220. 7. Call L. Cramer. Clarence W. Jensen. Douglas D. Southgate (1997), Agricultural Economics and Agrihusines.s, John Wiley & Sons Inc. USA. Nghi4n cuv Kinh 14 so 373 • Thing &2009 63