Báo cáo Nghiên cứu khoa học Crops priorities research Period of 2011 -2020

Ministry of Agriculture & Rural Development CROPS PRIORITIES RESEARCH Period of 2011 -2020 (Discussion Paper for Agriculture Sector Priorities Workshop) Prepared by: Nguyen Van Bo VAAS November 2010 I. INTRODUCTION In 2009, at the National Conference celebrating 50 years of the Ministry of Science and Technology, we agreed that, outstanding agricultural achievements during 20 years of renovation mainly thanks to four factors: (1) policy renovation, (2) increasing investment especially for irrigation and drainage infrastructure, (3) technology innovation and application and (4) Farmer’s hard-working. Depending on the period in time, the three first above-mentioned factors have received a different ranking in priority. In 1986-1990, the appropriate policies by the Government of Vietnam concerning agro-land, for example enhanced the motivation by farmers when they obtained their land-use rights. Farmers then also facilitated the effective investment in science and technology in their fields. In 1991-2000, water management received priority for special investment to promote irrigated areas, to prevent salt intrusion, and reclamation of land suffering acid sulfate toxicity in the Plain of Reeds area of the Mekong Delta. The rice growing area was 5.70 million ha in 1986 and increased up to 7.66 million ha in 2000. Over 2 million ha increase for 15 years (34%) is very impressive During the last ten years, science and technology has obviously been a decisive factor leading to increased rice production as well as other crops. Lessons in China indicated that the contribution by science and technology to agricultural growth accounted for 39-50% (especially 48.5% in term of husbandry growth). In Vietnam, however, there is not yet any assessment to pinpoint the influence by science and technology. It has been accepted that this possibly accounts for 30%, and the figure has been nominally used so far. However, poverty remains the single biggest factor in Vietnam. The country has been facing many challenges and difficulties such as agro-land reduction due to urbanization and industrialization, population pressure with an increase of more than 1 million people a year; climate change causing flood and salinization in coastal areas or severe drought in upland areas. In addition, the low profit for farmers from agricultural production making this sector less competitive when compared to the others. To overcome current and future challenges, Vietnam intends to pay more attention to strengthening science and technology capacity, which is considered to be the only solution for improving agricultural productivity and farmer’s income. This report is focusing in crops sub-sector priority for the period of 2011-2015 and strategy to the year of 2020. II. PAST PERFORMANCE AND IMPACTS 1. Most significant gains from research, technology development and transfer in the sub-sector over the last 10-15 years. 2.1. Achievements In the last decade, crop production value increased from 8.45 billion USD up to 10.39 billion USD, with a growth rate of 4.0%/year (This figure in agricultural sector accounts for 4.5%/year). Crop production’s share in agricultural GDP is relatively very high: varies from 74 to 78%. In 2000-2009, on average, planting areas of most crops increased by 50%. Some crops having significant increase in area include pepper (197%), cassava (114%) and Cashew (133%). However, main crops with large area or play important role in the subsector didn’t increase much except for rubber. Rice and groundnut areas maintained the same figure. However, most of crops, productivity increased by much higher rate compared to area, leading to increasing production significantly. The most impressive achievement is rice subsector. Rice production increased by 142% (average 1.03 million ton/year- over 22 continuous years). It increased mainly due to improving productivity with the average of 0.11 ton/ha/year. Thanks to yield increase from 4.29 tons/ha in 2001 to 5.40 tons/ha in 2009, leading paddy output increased from 32.1 million tons to 38.9 million tons during the same period. This production growth is mainly due to productivity growth, because at the same period, rice land reduced by 15 thousand ha/year on average. Remember that, during 1980-2000, thanks to improvement of irrigation works, reclamation of soils in Plain of Reed, farmers could grow 2-3 crops years instead of 1 crop. Sustainable rice production ensuring not only national food security but also providing 5-6 million tons of milled rice for export. Vietnam rice export contributed 0.7%, 9.3%, and 12.3% of total commercial rice in the world market in 1988, 1998 and 2008 respectively. Maize has very fast growth rate both in area and productivity. Area increases from 729 thousand ha in 2001 up to 1.09 million ha in 2009 and yield increases from 2.96 tons/ha to 4.08 tons/ha accordingly. Production increases from 2.16 million tons to 4.43 million tons during the same period. Area of coffee in 2009 was 537 thousand ha, decreased by 30 thousand ha compared to that of 2001 due to the reason that some area need to be replanted or with declining productivity (farmers planted coffee on poor soils when coffee price went up dramatically in late of eighties of last century). However, thanks to higher intensification, yield of coffee increased by 10% for the period of 2001- 2009. The same trend as maize, area of rubber increased very fast for the last 10 years, reaching 674 thousand ha (with approximately 30 thousand ha/year). This is more meaningful when we had a plan of planting only 500 thousands ha. During the same period, dry latex yield increased by 0.36 tons/ha . Tea area increased not much, only 31 thousand ha for the last 10 years, reaching 130 thousand ha in 2009. The main achievements in tea production are in improving productivity and quality; more than 60% area of tea has been replaced by new varieties. Some area of premium tea has been developed, especially for oolong tea. Thanks to new varieties, fresh bud yield increased by 1.5 times, price increased by 20%. Cashew has the highest fluctuation in area and productivity due to the world markets demand and competitiveness of the others commodities for the same land. Area under cashew increased very fast in the early 1990s, but is now decreasing year by year. At the same time, farmers reduce investment so yield in most of the area is lower than 1 ton/ha. Plan to replace area planted by seed with grafted varieties has a quite low progress. Different picture can be seen with pepper, when productivity decreased (0.11ton/ha) when area increased by 13.9 thousand ha during 2001-2009. Yield reduction mainly is due to nematode and inappropriate post. Almost no big research projects on pepper for the last period. The same trend as pepper is in sugarcane. Area decreased by 20 thousand ha during 2001-2009. Productivity also increased with very low rate (less 1.0 tons/ha/year). The main reasons are low competitiveness of sugar and bad linkages between sugarcane growing farmers with sugar industry. However, thanks to sugar price increase, so farmers start increasing intensification. In legume production, peanut production area was 255 thousand ha in 2009, increasing 10.8 thousand ha compared to that in 2001. Peanut yield was 2.08 tons/ha, increasing 0.59 tons/ha compared to that in 2001. Peanut production reached 531 thousand tons, increasing 167 thousand tons compared to that in 2001 with average increase of 5.6%/year. Soybean production area was 192 thousand ha, increasing 51.4 thousand ha compared to that in 2001 with average increase of 5.6%/year. Soybean yield was 1.46 tons/ha in 2008, increasing over 10% compared to that in 2001. Average yield increase was 6.4%/year. The fruit production area increased 26 thousand ha/year for the period from 2001 to 2009. It has currently reached approximately 800 thousand ha. Total vegetables and legumes production area was 925 thousand ha, increasing at an average of nearly 30 thousands ha/year during the last ten years. The above achievements in agricultural production have resulted in the increase of food per head from 435 kg in 2001 to 485 kg in 2009. In addition, 4.5 million tons of rice was exported from Vietnam every year. Value of crop production increased from 360 USD in 2001 to approximately 500 USD in 2009. Many crop products are exported with high proportions such as rice (20%), coffee (95%), rubber (85%), tea (75%), cashew (90%), black pepper (98%). Some export products are internationally well known such as black pepper, cashew (the largest exporter), rice, coffee (second largest exporter), rubber (fourth largest), tea (fifth largest). The export turn-over of main agricultural produce (rice, coffee, rubber, black pepper, tea, fruit, vegetables, peanut) increase with on average by23.6%/year. The export turn-over of many key crop produces such as rice, coffee and rubber is worth over one billion USD. The export turn-over of cassava reached 800 million USD in 2009. Vietnam is a trade-deficit country. However, in the case of crop products, exports are greater than imports. If the import of agricultural inputs such as fertilisers, pesticides, planting materials is taken in to account, the agricultural commodities always have a trade surplus of over 50%. 2.2. Causes for the success Achievements in crop production are the results of many causes above including investment, policy and science innovations. In this report, only science and technology-related causes are discussed. i) Firstly, it was the application of new varieties with appropriate growth periods for each area, short growth period, resistance to the weather extremes and disease and application of integrated crop management. Good varieties and techniques are important for the stable increase on yield of crop, reduction of price and quality improvement of produces. As quoted by the Department of Crop Production, 80% of the current rice area was covered by new rice varieties and over 30% was planted with certified varieties. The hybrid rice area made up 20 – 25%, high quality rice was 30 – 40%. For maize, hybrid maize area made up over 90%, of which over 70% was planted with Vietnamese varieties. Just in the period of 2006 – 2010, 63 varieties were officially recognised including 16 varieties of rice, 7 varieties of maize, 5 varieties of legumes, 8 varieties of vegetables, 4 varieties of fruit trees, 5 varieties of coffee and 2 varieties of sugarcane …and 107 crop varieties were approved for pilot production. In the recent 5 year, 16 varieties of rice have been officially recognised and 35 varieties have been approved for pilot production. Quality and yield of Vietnamese rice varieties produced in northern Vietnam is higher than that of Chinese varieties. Production area for newly recognised varieties covers 750 thousand to 800 thousand/ha/year. If the new varieties had 10% yield increase then the above production area of new varieties would result in the addition of 350 thousand tons/year, equivalent to 1.2 thousand billion VND/year. In the southern Vietnam, as surveyed by the Center for crops and fertilizers testing (2008), the rice production area covered with varieties bred by Cuu Long Rice Research Institute (CLRRI) had reached over 2.4 million ha, covered 34.9% of the total rice production area in Vietnam or 80% of the rice production area in the Cuu Long river delta. The dominant varieties for the last period were OM 4900, OM4498, OMCS 2000, OM 2517, OM 4088, OM 3536, OM 6162 and OM 1490. With the area of 2.4 million ha, if the new varieties had 10% yield increase or production increase of 1.2 million tons/year, just varieties bred by CLRRI and IAS have brought about the profit of 4.2 thousands billion VND/year. The survey also shows that the Vietnamese rice varieties are commonly grown in the Central Coast and Central Highland with the production area of approximately 100 thousand ha, covered up to 37.7%, in the East Southern with over 221 thousand ha, up 45.4% of total area. In five years, four hybrid varieties of rice (two two-lines and two 3-lines) were approved for wide production. The combinations that are effectively produced includes HYT 100, HYT 92, HYT 83, HYT 102, HYT 103, TH3-3, TH3-4, TH3-5 and VL20. Those parents have produced 5,059 tons of F1 seeds generating seedlings for 168,655 ha of rice production. In addition, some Chinese varieties have been selected and acclimatized by the Vietnamese scientists contributing to the increase of hybrid rice production area. The total hybrid rice production area reached 700 thousand ha for one year. With the yield being 1 ton/ha higher than conventional rice, the above hybrid area produces 700 thousand tons extra per year. - Maize varieties: In the recent 5 year period, 17 maize varieties including 13 hybrid varieties have been recognised. Yield of the new varieties are similar to introduced foreign varieties. The Vietnamese varieties are more resistant to drought and pest and diseases and cheaper than the introduced varieties. Vietnamese varieties can compete with imported varieties in the domestic market and has been exported to several countries in the region such as Laos and China. The MRI and IAS produce approximately 4,000 tons of seeds, supplying for over 60% seed demand in the whole country. With the amount of seeds produced and supplied by those institutes, farmers save almost 4 million USD every year if the price of Vietnamese maize seeds is 1 USD lower than imported varieties. The use of new maize varieties have resulted in the yield increase of 0.52 tons/ha (from 3.46 tons to 3.98 tons). Yield of Vietnamese maize has beaten that of Thailand maize and is now leading the South East Asia region. Proportion of hybrid maize production is equivalent to that of Thailand and far ahead of Indonesia and the Philippines. Yield increase has brought about the profit of 500 billion VND/year. - Legume varieties: Yield of new released peanut varieties can be over 5 tons/ha. Two dominant varieties (L18 and L23) are planted every year with the area of 40 thousand ha, making up 15% of production area in the whole country. Yield increase is 0.5 – 1 ton/ha, bringing about the profit of 330 billion VND/year. Bacterial-wilt-resistant varieties MD7 and MD9 have been a solution for tens of thousands of hectares with bacterial wilt epidemic. In the recent 5 years, 9 new varieties of soybeans including 1 variety of vegetable soybean have been recognised. Production area covered with new varieties is around 22 thousand ha/year, making 11.5% area of the whole country with the increase of 200 kg/ha, bringing about the profit of 52.8 billion VND/year. - Fruit: Have evaluated and selected 4 varieties of early ripe litchi (20 – 25 days earlier than Thanh Ha variety), 2 varieties of late ripening longan (20 days later than other varieties). Price of these varieties is 3,000 – 5,000 VND/kg higher than other varieties, which has led to the expansion of production in recent 2-3 years (early ripe litchi 820 ha and late ripe longan 800 ha). FAVRI and AGI are extending the production area of seedless orange V2 in many traditional orange regions such as Phu Quy, Anh Son (Nghệ An) and Cao Phong (Hòa Bình). Yield of this orange in some areas of Nghe An has reached 20 tons of fruit/ha right in the fourth year of growth. This is a good quality orange with very few seeds, nice appearance and disease resistance. Free-pathogen seedlings are produced by grafting techniques. In addition, some new varieties are being evaluated and extended, e.g. mandarin PQ1 with high and stable yield (35 – 50 tons/ha), good quality, greening disease resistance, late ripening in January – February; red- fleshed dragon-fruits and pineapples. … Tea: New Vietnamese varieties have covered 48% of production area in the whole country (132 thousand ha) including LPD1: 15,000 ha (12%), LPD2: 18,000 ha (13%), PH1: 13,000 ha (10%). Especially in Nghe An, the new tea varieties have been produced in 96% of the tea production area in the province. It is noted that area for new tea varieties only made up 12% with average yield of 3.6 tons/ha before 2000; the area for new tea varieties increased to made up 35.6% with the average yield of 5.8 tons/ha in 2005 and 48% with the average yield of 7.3 tons/ha in 2009. Price of new variety tea increased 50% compared to the traditional varieties. Tea produced in Vietnam is also qualified for process of O long tea. Coffee: New lines of Robusta coffee (TR4, TR5, TR6, TR7, TR8,TR9, TR10, TR11, TR12, TR13) yielded an average of 4 – 6 tons of coffee bean/ha with weight of 17 – 19 g/100 beans. The yield is 0.5 – 1 ton higher than the varieties grown from seed. VAAS has supplied 1.5 million high quality grafted seedlings for new production and in parallel, renewed 40 thousand ha of low-yield Robusta plantation with new varieties since 2002. Cassava: Cassava varieties have progressed very well. New varieties have been produced in all cassava production areas in Vietnam with the yield increase of almost 100% for the last 10 years. Dominant varieties are KM 94, KM 140. Moreover, many new crop varieties of cashew, cocoa, banana, passion fruits, temperate fruits (peach, pear) are now produced. In general, the biggest achievements in new varieties are with rice, maize, peanuts, cassava, rubber, tea and cashew. There has been some progress with new varieties of coffee, sugarcane and cocoa. Fruits and vegetables have the least new varieties, mainly indigenous and traditional varieties except pineapple (30% of production area replaced with new varieties), cauliflower, broccoli and hybrid vegetable varieties (tomato, cucumber). ii) In addition to new varieties, production techniques and technical packages have been applied systematically in production. Examples of typical techniques/technical packages are: - Single techniques: Using certified varieties, leveling the field with laser, using sowing machines. In some northern mountainous areas, changing spring crop from peak season to late season has increased yield significantly and avoided the weather extremes. Transplanting technologies including wide and narrow row, “thick in thin, thin in thick” or triangle transplanting techniques have increased the evenness and uniformity of the rice fields and increase the yield. Sowing machines, combined soil milling and field leveling machines, water pumping machines innovated from the mowing machines have been applied. In fruit production, producing virus-free planting materials by grafting technique, quick propagation of crops (orange, pomelo, cashew, mango, flowers) by tissue culturing, grafting to renew crop plantation (coffee, fruit trees) have been conducted. - In plant protection, protocols for managing brown plant hopper and rice grassy stunt virus and rice ragged stunt virus which caused the loss of 1 million tons of rice in the southern Vietnam have been studied and applied successfully. The supervision of brown plant hopper density, seed treatment, early spray and good hygiene practice and simultaneous sowing has been proved effective to control the virus epidemic. With the experience from rice grassy stunt virus and rice ragged stunt virus control, the Vietnamese scientists stopped the spread of Southern Black-Streaked Dwarf Virus in Nghe An, Thai Binh, Nam Dinh, saving hundreds of ha of rice production which was in a risk of no harvest. Control of citrus greening by using yellow ants or Protein baits or intercropping with guavas has been effective. Crop production on slopping land using new terrace and munching techniques has changed from 1 crop/year to 2 crops/year. - A number of new techniques in using fertilisers have been studied and applied effectively. Good examples include appropriate fertiliser application, nitrogen application based on chlorophyll meter followed by checking rice leaf colour code. Fertiliser application techniques depending on specific regions have increased of 8 – 10% effectiveness of using fertilisers. Recently, the use the nitrogen inhibitor Agrotain has reduced 20 – 25 kg urea/ha/rice crop. In crop production industry, usually nine million tons of fertilisers (1.8 tons urea, 600 thousand tons SA, 750 thousand tons DAP, 900 thousand tons KCl, 1.6 million tons P2O5 and 3.5 million tons NPK) are used annually. Therefore, using of the above techniques has made a huge contribution in saving fertilisers. - The technical package “3 reduction, 3 increase” (reducing planting materials, nitrogen, and spray to increase yield, effectiveness and income). This package has been integrated from the single effective techniques such as using rice leaf colour code and has been applied effectively in most of Cuu Long river delta areas, bringing about the project of at least 1.5 million VND/ha/rice crop. - During the implementation of “3 reduction and 3 gains”, scientists recommended some additional techniques such as using certified varieties (currently, certified varieties only used in 30% of total rice production), mechanising production systematically to reduce labour and postharvest losses. Therefore, a new technical package called “one must do and 5 reductions” is recommend. “1 must” means must use certified varieties, “5 reduction” means reducing planting materials, reducing spray, reducing nitrogen, reducing labour and reducing loss after harvest. Recently, with the collaboration with IRRI, the application of the rice production techniques “dry – wet” has saved 30% of the irrigation water. The package has proved effective, not only reduced production input and increased yield, but also reduced the pressure with pests and diseases, especially the rice grassy virus and rice ragged stunt virus. 2.3. Main issues related to science and technology i) Production was not sustainable, mainly depending on the weather conditions (flood, typhoon, drought, warm/cold, disease epidemics in a large scale). There is still big difference in yield between crops and areas due to small household production which is difficult to apply advanced techniques. ii) There was a reduction trend in growth of crop production industry (increase 5.2% in 2000, 4.6% in 2004, 3% currently) due to the cost of input whereas there was no price increase. iii) The scale of production was small, no strategic plan. Some products developed without proper plan leading to the common “planting-destroying” situation. In the period from 2001 to 2009 over 101.6 thousand ha of litchi production was destroyed (2001: 194.9 thousand ha, 2008: 93.3 thousand left), 28 thousand ha of coffee was destroyed (2001: 565.3 thousand ha, 2009: 537 thousand ha); approximately 40 thousand ha of cashew was destroyed (destroyed in 2007, now continuing to be destroyed for replacement of rubber). iv) Crop yield has increased. However, it is still significantly low compared to that in some developed agricultural countries. Rice yield is 5.4 tons/ha in Vietnam whereas it is over 6.2 tons/ha in China, Japan, Korea. Maize yield is 4 tons/ha in Vietnam whereas it is over 8 tons/ha. Peanut yield is 2 tons/ha in Vietnam whereas it is over 3 tons/ha in China and nearly 6 tons/ha in Israel. Soybean yield in Vietnam is only 40 – 50% of that in other countries. v) Postharvest loss was significant, number of varieties used was too high (over 300 rice varieties in the whole country). Therefore, price of Vietnamese rice is always 20-30 USD/ton lower than Thai rice. Processed products make up a small proportion. vi) Food safety has been an issue. There has been high amount of produce contaminated with high level of Nitrate and pesticides. Non-permit pesticides are still used in some areas. Imported fruits and vegetables have not been assessed in term of quality and toxic residues. The above issues were due to many reasons including 3 most important reasons as follows: i) Emphasized too much on the applied research and less emphasized on basic research For many years, research institutes were mainly focused on the applied research due to the pressure on production. Those studies have been applied effectively in production. However, from this approach, many research projects did not include an appropriate basic research component. It, therefore, has led to the description of a phenomenon instead of explaining scientific basis for the phenomenon in many research projects. This approach also led to the reduction of basic scientists. Lack of basic research has led to the lack of confidence in management of unexpected changes due to weather, rice grassy stunt virus and rice ragged stunt virus, , Southern Black-Streaked Drawf Virus in crop production, epidemics of bird flu in animal husbandary. ii)Research collaboration has progressed but has not met the requirements The lack of highly educated human resource, equipment and laboratories requires collaboration in research. However, the research collaboration has been very limited due to the regulations on sciences, finance, partial attitude and pressure of getting more work. Collaboration in research has progresssed but not very strong, mainly just single or compulsory collaboration due to administrative pressure iii)Research outcomes were not sustainable, the application of many research outcomes are not stable, no research strategies. Currently, there are a high number of research outcomes that have been recognised as technical innovations. However, not many of them are applied in production. It could be due to the short term studies, lacking basic studies or single techniques which are difficult to supply as a technical package to the farmers. The research and extension/transfer have been conducted independently leading to the slow technology transfer. It is also very difficult to set directions for the research fields when there are no scientific research strategies for the industry. III. CHALLENGES FOR CROP PRODUCTION INDUSTRY RELATED TO SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY - Vietnamese population continues to increase with a speed of 1.0 – 1.2%/year for the next tens of year and is estimated to reach 100 million in 2020 and 110 in 2030 and become stable at around 130 million people. - Area for agricultural production continues to reduce, especially rice production area. In the period of 2001 – 2007, over 500 thousand ha of agricultural production were changed into non- agricultural land. It is forecasted that 550 thousand ha of agricultural production including 200 thousand ha of rice production will be changed into non-agricultural land from 2008 to 2020. 1. - Climate change will directly affect crop production. As studied and forecasted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) and the World Bank (WB), Vietnam will be one of 5 countries which are most affected by climate change. In the next 100 years, sea level will rise 1 m, temperature will increase 1 – 2 oC. There will be 1.5 – 2 million ha of agricultural production area in Cuu Long River Delta region and 0.3 – 0.5 ha in Red River Delta region, which are mainly rice land, being flooded or salt affected. Climate change will also cause the increase in typhoons, floods, drought, cold, hot weather, increase of pests and diseases and reduction of crop yield. If the temperature increases 1oC the rice yield will reduce 10%, maize % - 20%, irrigation water demand will increase10%. This will affect crop production and will be a challenge for ensuring food security to meet domestic and export demand in the future. - Low competitive capacity of Vietnamese agricultural produce has faced the high competitiveness when joining the WTO due to high production cost, low quality, small-scale production and low processing rate. - Low investment in agricultural sector. In 2009, the figure accounting only 6.26% of total state investment, when, the sector contributes 20.91% in national GDP. At the same time, FDI in agriculture also low (2008 accounts for 0.32% of total FDI in Vietnam, in 2009: 0,58%). For the whole period, from 1988 to 2009 (21 years), FDI in agriculture was 2.3% of total (the sector contributed 27.7% during the same period). according to Ministry of finance, for the last 5 years state investment to agriculture meeting only 17% of demand (8.7% of state investment). IV. OBJECTIVES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CROP PRODUCTION INDUSTRY AND PRIORITIES FOR THE PERIOD 2011-2020 4.1. Objectives - Industry value increase at 2.6%/year, of which food crop increase 1.1%/year, industrial crop 3.8%/year, fruit 4.3%/year. - Reach a production of 45.2 million tons of food (rice 39.6 million tons, maize 6 million tons) in 2015 and 48.8 million tons (rice 41.3 million tons, maize 7.5 million tons) in 2020. - Export turn-over in 2015: 11 billion USD; 12 billion USD in 2020. - Promoting the development of maize, soybean with the future goal of no import. 4.2. Criteria for identifying priorities and research priorities There are 3 groups of plants in crop production: i) High competitive group; ii) Medium competitive group and iii) Low competitive. There was some period when priorities were identified with 2 groups: Export group (rice, coffee, rubber, black pepper, cashew, cassava, peanut) and alternative import group (maize, soybean and cotton). In this report, we group products in the competitiveness on production and marketing capacity. Criteria for the prioritized grouping are based on competitive advantage and social role of produce, therefore, can change through time. Examples: rice doesn’t have high competitive advantage compared to many other crops but having large production scale, high social role involving the whole nation. There are crops like sedge which used to have low competitiveness but now grouped in medium priorities due to the market demand and the advantage of being the only plant that can grow in the salt affected area. Table 1. Crops of high competitiveness advantages Planted Area (A), Harvested area (HA), Paddy land (PL): 1000 ha, Yield (Y): tons.ha-1, Production (P): 1,000 tons Plan Target 2009 2010 2015 2020 Research Priorities PL 4.10 4.06 3.85 3.70 HA 7,440 7,200 7,050 7,000 Y 5.23 5.32 5.62 5.90 1.Rice P 38,895 38,304 39,621 41,300 Short growth duration, wider adaptation, ensuring yield increase by 1,0% per year until 2015 and 0,5% per year afterward. Increase area under hybrid rice up to 1 million ha. Start super rice breeding program. A 735 800 1.000 1.2002. Vegetable* Y 16.2 16.0 16.5 17.0 Hybrid varieties, implementation of GAP, pre- processing and storage technology. A 674 650 800 8003. Rubber Y 1.69 1.70 1.75 1.85 High yielding varieties, low temperature resistant and farming practice for Northern Vietnam, A 537 500 500 5004. Coffee Y 2.00 2.00 2.04 2.24 Replacing plantation with more than 20 years old by grafting with new varieties, re-plantation. Increase area of Arabica coffee. Wet processing technology A 128 130 135 1405. Tea Y 6.98 7.00 7.5. 8.00 New varieties of high quality replacement of old plantation by intercropping. Diversification of tea brand, especially oolong tea A 50.5 50 50 506. Black pepper Y 2.38 2.60 2.80 2.80 Disease resistant varieties development, suitable post, Nematode control. A 398 400 400 4007. Cashew Y 0.86 1.10 1.40 1.60 Replacement of all cashew plantation by grafted ones 8. Fruits A 790 850 950 1.000 Pruning and postharvest technology A 45 45 50 558a. Pomelo Y 11.5 Purification of indigenous varieties, disease-free seedlings and pruning and postharvest technology A 73 93 105 1158b. Orange Y 10.6 Seedless and greening resistant varieties, Green house technology, pruning and postharvest technology A 88 92 105 1108c. Mango Y 8.0 Improvement of fruit skin suitable for long transportation. Breeding for-seasons varieties A 8d. Dragon fruits Y Varieties improvement with diverse colors and postharvest technology * Including edible and medicinal mushrooms Table 2. Crops with medium competitiveness Planted Area (A), Harvested area (HA): 1000 ha, Yield (Y): tons.ha-1, Production (P): 1,000 tons Plan Target 2009 2010 2015 2020 Research priorities A 1,087 1,140 1,200 1,300 Y 4.08 4.12 5.00 5.77 1. Maize P 4,432 4,700 6,000 7,500 Developing new varieties with high yield, short duration, drought resistant, pest resistant. Commercialise and extending the GMO varieties A 249 260 280 3002. Peanut Y 2.11 2.10 2.30 2.50 Developing new varieties with high yield, widely adaptable, high rate of seeds and oil, disease resistant, especially bacterial wilt resistant. A 260 300 300 3003. Sugarcane Y 58.6 63.0 72.0 85.0 Developing new varieties with high yield and sugar content. Developing quick and effective propagation techniques A 560 500 450 4004. Cassava Y 16.9 17.0 18.9 22.5 New varieties (high yield and content of starch), quick propagation, land protection A 7.81 15.65 33.50 50.005. Cocoa Y 0.40 0.72 1.00 1.19 New varieties and plant protection 6. Flower A 15.0 20.0 22.0 New varieties, flowering time control A 135 135 135 1357. Coconut Y 8.65 9.0 9.5 10.0 Short type varieties, multiple use purposes, replacing old varieties with dua coconut with certain rate. A 10.3 8. Sedge Y 7.35 New varieties with high yield, long thread Source: Statistical Yearbook, 2010 and other sources Table 2. Crops with low competitiveness Planted Area (A), Harvested area (HA): 1000 ha, Yield (Y): tons.ha-1, Production (P): 1,000 tons Plan Target 2009 2010 2015 2020 Research Priorities A 146 220 300 400 1. Soybean Y 1.46 1.50 1.70 2.00 New varieties with high yield, short duration, high protein content, rust resistant. Commercialise GMO varieties A 8.0 40.0 2. Cotton Y 1.25 2.5 New GMO varieties, changing planting season A 146 200.0 3.Sweet potato Y 8.25 15.0 New varieties with high yield and disease resistant A 23.7 25.0 4. Tobacco Y 1.84 2.0 New varieties with high yield and disease resistant, distinguished flavour A 9.9 15.0 5. Mulberry and silk worm Y 13.8 20.0 New varieties with high yield, long thread. Silk worm production technique. New silk worm varieties A 106 115 135 140 6. Litchi Y 5.8 New varieties: early ripe, small seed or seedless. Orchard management, plant protection A 93 105 125 140 7. Longan Y 7.2 New varieties: late ripe, small seed or seedless. Orchard management, plant protection. A 39 45 50 55 8. Pineapple Y 14.6 New varieties: high yield, appropriate for processing and fresh eat, flowering stimulating techniques A 114 120 135 145 9. Banana Y 16.3 New varieties: high yield, quick propagation for virus free seedlings 10. Grass A 53 110 220 332 New varieties with high yield and food quality Source: Statistical Yearbook, 2010 and other sources There is difference in priorities for produce position in crop production industries and for research. However, we identify the priorities based on the role of produces. Science and technology have to follow the above priorities. Therefore, if research capacity doesn’t meet requirements for developing a prioritised produce, we can import new technology or enable research collaboration as in the example of GMO maize. With the above point of view, there is difference in the priorities in this report with some crop groups in ARDO reports from a study funded by CARD in 2007. If in previous workshops, we divided crops into 9 groups based on different research opportunities (ARDO 1: Rice; 2: UPLAND CROPS; 3: LEGUMES; 4: INDUSTRIAL CROPS; 5: FRUIT; 6: VEGETABLES; 7: FLOWERS; 8: CROPS FOR ANIMAL FEED and 9: CROPS FOR NEW USES). In this report we divide crops more specifically to species to avoid overlap or controversy. Example, we had Upland Crops and Industrial Crops as separate groups, which was difficult to decide which group to put coffee and tea into - uplands or industrial crops. It was also difficult to priorities research for fruit crops as they were all in one group. Following the criteria mentioned above, the high research prioritised group include products with large scale production and export: rice (20% of total production is for export), rubber (85% of total production is for export), coffee (90% of total production is for export), tea (75% of total production), black pepper (98% of total production is for export) and cashew (90% of total production is for export). Production area of this group makes up over 80% of the total cultivated land. Two groups of vegetables and fruits although not important for export but having high domestic demand and large production area, influencing social likelihood and having future market potentials. These crops are therefore classified in the high prioritised group. In fruit groups, there are 3 species being prioritised for research and development. They are citrus, mango and dragon fruit. Pomelo and orange are the most important citrus. 6 Vietnamese indigenous pomelo varieties are considered the best pomelo in the world. They are Da xanh pomelo, Phuc Trach pomelo, Thanh Tra pomelo, Nam Roi pomelo, Dien pomelo and Doan Hung pomelo (ranking based on the taste and personal interviews) The priorities for rice, coffee, rubber, tea are obvious, easily acceptable. For coffee, in addition to developing new varieties for high yield and disease resistant, research on replanting old coffee plantation (pest and disease issues, low yield) with new selected varieties (15000 ha/year) is important. As estimated by the WASI, in the next 5 years, it is necessary to replant 20% the coffee production area equivalent to nearly 100,000 ha of 343,000 ha coffee in the region. Coffee plants in this old plantation area are in the age of 17 – 25 year old, yielding only 1.2 tons of coffee bean/ha, equivalent to 50% of average yield in the whole country and 1/3 of commercial yield in the same region. For rubber, to meet the objective of developing rubber plantation area to 800 thousands, rubber need to be planted in 150 thousands ha ineffective agricultural land, unused land and poor natural forest land which is appropriate to the growing conditions of rubber. Therefore, it is very important to have appropriate varieties that are widely adaptable and systematical production techniques. For tea, prioritised research are focused on developing new varieties with high yield and good quality, developing new techniques for replacing old varieties and improving tea processing technology. In the vegetable group, it is difficult to identify priorities at the national level as the production area for this group is large and there are many different vegetables across different growing seasons and areas. However, with 267 thousand ha of intensive vegetable production and total production area of 800 thousand ha, planned to extend to 1.2 million ha, vegetables have good potential for development including export. For vegetable groups need prioritised research in all stages from seeds, nursery to production techniques are tomato, cucumber, leafy vegetables and mushroom. The medium research priorities group includes maize, peanut, sugarcane, cassava, cocoa, coconut and sedge. This group is mainly for domestic consumption and import alternatives (maize, peanut oil) with the production area of 1.5 million ha. Maize in fact is highly prioritised in research point of view. However, from now to the next 10 – 15 years, Vietnamese maize can compete with imported maize due to the high production cost. Therefore, it should only be classified in the medium prioritised group. The main targets are extending maize production in rice field, former coffee field, extra crop land; establishing maize production area with large scale in appropriate location and investing on maize intensive production, meeting the requirements of supplying materials for livestock food processing industry. There may be some queries with the classification of cassava and cocoa in the medium group of research priorities. With the new set of varieties, low investment, wide adaptation, less pest and diseases, high market requirement not only for food processing but also for biofuel production, cassava is developing rapidly. In 2009, export of sliced cassava and cassava starch reached the value of over 800 million USD. However, the Government does not strongly encourage the development of this crop due to issues involving deforestation, soil productivity reduction and the waste from cassava processing. Planned production area for cassava is just around 400 thousands ha. However, it is now over 550 thousands ha and may increase more. For cocoa, although the production area is just 15 thousands ha, the quality of Vietnamese cocoa is considered the best in the world. Cocoa can be intercropped with coconut. It is encouraged to extend production. Recently, coconut is classified into prioritised group for its multiple usage. There are new technologies in processing of coconut; all parts of coconut from juice, copra, nut shell to coco palm are usable. Coconut is also widely adaptable, low land competition (slatternly produced) and have potential to be extended to a large scale in coastal sandy soil areas. Thus, with the current production of 135 thousand ha, it is possible to extend coconut production to tens of thousands ha. Together with the extension of production area, new varieties of coconut such as “pineapple coconut” is also produced largely. In the low prioritised group, there are 5 species including soybean, cotton, sweet potato, tobacco, mulberry, litchi, longan, pineapple, banana and grass. The production area for these species is not small but the market for those produces are not stable, low yield and easy to be replaced by other crops. For litchi, it is important to focus on the control of fruit borer and develop early ripe varieties with high sugar content and high proportion of flesh. Postharvest technology should also be prioritised to storage produce during transportation and maintain good quality for at least one week. Current production area of 115 thousand ha should be maintained with 30% of production area being replanted with early ripe varieties. For longan, a common nationwide product, the production area is 105 thousand ha with many different varieties. However, quality of longan in general is low with small fruits, big seeds.Therefore, breeding is the highest priority for longan. For all fruits, they are mainly consumed fresh, not many are processed. Therefore, there is a need of importing and developing processing technology for juice, jam, dry fruits in order to diversity the products and reduce amount of fresh products sold from intensive harvest. For all crops, especially fruits and vegetables, production should be organised following GlobalGAP to ensure food safety and be able to compete with imported fruits and vegetables in domestic market as well as promote export. V. RESOURCES AND CONDITIONS FOR IMPLEMENTING RESEARCH PRIORITIES PERIOD 2011-2020 5.1. Research opportunities For many years to come, science and technology is still prioritised by the Vietnamese Government. Opportunities for the above research priorities to be implemented effectively are: 1) The Government is promoting changes in the organisation and administrative and finance management mechanism following the trend of giving more rights to the organisation and individuals by issuing the Decree 96 which provide amendments and additions to the Decree 115 on the independent rights for public science and technology organisation. For finance, Decree 44 and 97 have provided opportunities for scientists to be more independent in implementing research works, or the cancellation of reclaim policy for P project has increased the application of research outcomes. 2) The Government has committed to spend 2% of total Government spending budget for science, regardless the loan credits, international collaboration or production and business. It is also not taken into account the significant budget invested in education and training and environmental resources used in agricultural and rural research. In agriculture, the Government will continue support the project of seeds in agriculture and forestry, animal breed and aquaculture breed. This is also an important resource to quickly produce new planting materials and animal breed with larger scale. 3) Infrastructures have been upgraded in most of research institutions with new laboratories, green houses, fields with the loan of 60 million USD. Those new built facilities have been completed and are ready for use in research. 4) The system of research institutes in crop production has been basically completed, resulted in an organisation with good linkage and appropriate coordination in both basic and applied research between the specialised research institute and regional institute. Working groups have started forming creating a true linkage not just in administrative system. 5) The Government considers human resource as an essential factor for research quality and effectiveness. The Government invest in oversea postgraduate training with the budget of 7 – 8 million USD/year. The agricultural biotechnology program also allocates a significant budget for oversea postgraduate training. These Master and PhD resource are now prepared to contribute to the improvement in the research staff quality. 6) The Government allows the purchase of new variety copyrights and technical innovations to re-invest to research and increase support to good scientists. Although there were not many commercialised products for 2006-2010, it has created a good opportunity to promote the commercialisation process. 5.2. Challenges for research Beside the opportunities, science and technology is going to face the following challenges in the coming years: 1) Lack of leading scientists who have experience and ability of gathering the research scientists. Looking into the current situation in crop production research (which involves most of VAAS institutions), most of the plant breeders have biology or plant physiology background, very few were trained in genetic technology. Although the Government is investing in the capacity building of human resource, the lack of well-trained researchers has led to ineffective operation of central laboratories which have been built with the investment budget of 3 -4 million USD. Lack of well-trained researchers in many high prioritised research areas. There are 2 -3 research scientists who have experience with breeding of coffee, citrus, cashew, black pepper, sugarcane. There are only 4 -5 experts even in hybrid rice which has drawn attention for almost 20 years. There has been no addition of trained staff in some field such as mulberry and silkworm, bee production… for many years. Brain-drain is also a common phenomenon although it is a trend of integration. There is no training plan for specialised fields. 2) Beside the advantages, the independence mechanism and self-responsibility to organisation and finance will create the focus on the works involving getting income to cover salary and other expenses. It also creates the further difference in resource allocation between Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh city and ecological regions. 3) Lack of research strategies is a great challenge, hampering the sustainability of research priorities 5.3. Production areas that have great potentials for application of research outcomes There is a certain delay in the achievement of research results in agriculture. Therefore, the increase in the investment of facility and research projects will benefit the development of the following industries: 1) Rice production will still be the high prioritised industry with stable development. Four to five new varieties annually together with popular varieties will maintain the increase in yield of 50 – 60 kg/ha/year as planned. The rice combinations of hybrid 2 and 3 lines will develop better. Vietnamese hybrid rice will make up 30 – 35% of the total hybrid rice (instead of 20% currently). There will be an increase in production area due to the increase in the yield of hybrid seeds (has just found the suitable seed production area in Central Highland) and the quality of rice produced from hybrid combinations, especially 3 lines hybrid. The staff resource will also enable the implementation of goals on rice. Most of the institutes, universities have rice research group regardless 3 main research institutions (CLRRI, FCRI and AGI) with well-trained scientists and many well invested laboratories including 2 national central laboratories. 2) Rubber will be a crop which will continue to increase in yield and production area due to the priority policy of the Government. The current set of rubber varieties with completed production techniques allows an increase of tens of thousands ha each year. The extension of rubber beyond the traditional production area (North West) will be a great opportunity for research, not only on seeds but also on nursery and production. Many research outcomes are ready to be applied in production including new plantation in Vietnam and overseas. There is a rubber research institution and 3 other institutes (in North West, Central Highlands and North Centre) having a rubber research group which are capable of studying in both seeds and production techniques. Moreover, rubber is the only crop having a national business company and stable and developed market which allow the investment of research and rapid development. 3) Maize will continue to increase in both yield and production area due to the priority policy of the Government as well as the current good set of varieties. Moreover, the development of GMO varieties (field risk assessment trial is currently conducted) will provide an opportunity for increasing yield and reducing production input. A specialised research institute and two other research institutes (AGI and IAS) with the involvement of approximately 50 scientists, 4 foreign companies and 2 big Vietnamese companies will promote the development of this chain. 4) Coffee and tea are the two crops with no rapid growth due to the difficulties with investment and replanting. However, with the stable market and intensive production area, these 2 crops will continue to develop in quality and yield. There used to be a research institute for each of the 2 crops and good team of experts. There is still good researchers working on tea whereas there is an issue with staff resource working on coffee, 3/6 experts have changed their job. Most of coffee research related laboratories are very poorly equipped. 5) Vegetables are in the high prioritised group but there will be no big development as there are almost no innovations in new varieties and nurseries. Most of hybrid vegetable seeds are imported. There are not more than 5 – 6 breeding scientists working on vegetables. This is a big challenge not only for the next 5 years but also for the 10 – 15 years if there is no active support. The mushroom group has potentials to develop due to many new varieties, good market, a specialised research centre and many company’s interest. 6) Fruit group will have some progress as there are some new and imported varieties together with improved nursery, production and postharvest techniques. However, rapid development will happen only on production area, not in quality. The indigenous and traditional varieties will still be dominant. Imported fruits will interfere with the development of fruit supply chains although we have 2 institutes specialised in fruit research with tens of experts highly recognised in Vietnam and in the world. Moreover, laboratories specialised in fruit research are still poorly equipped. 7) Sugarcane, mulberry and silkworm, root and legume crops: have long history of research. However, there will be no great development from the scientific point of view. The high yield varieties developed recently are imported from overseas (cassava, peanut, sugarcane). There is still limited basic research on these crops, no related laboratories. 8) Flower has potential for development as there is market demand, rapid propagation capacity and high diversity. Many organisations are involved in research on flowers. However, the development of flower industry will mainly base on the indigenous and imported varieties. 9) Cashew and cotton have limited opportunities for development although there are new varieties of cotton. The production of these two crops will be reduced. Therefore, the improvement of competitiveness capacity through increasing yield will be important. It should be noted that there is few scientists specialised in cashew. VI . CONCLUSION For the coming years, the crop production industry will still play a very important role in agriculture in particular and in Vietnam’s economy in general. We have had many achievements in research and development. However, we also face increasing challenges due to integration, climate change and population pressure.There will be no advantages of natural conditions and cheap labour. Therefore, science and technology seem to be the essential solution for the sustainable development and enhancement of competitiveness in crop production industry including technical science and social economic science. TABLES Table 1. Productions of selected crops 2000-2009 (Area: 1000ha, Prod.: 1000 tons; Yield: tons.ha-1) Source: General Statictical Office of Vietnam 1) Rice Years Area Yield Production 2000 7666.3 4.24 32529.5 2001 7492.7 4.29 32108.4 2002 7504.3 4.59 34447.2 2003 7452.2 4.64 34568.8 2004 7445.3 4.86 36148.9 2005 7329.2 4.89 35832.9 2006 7324.8 4.89 35846.5 2007 7207.4 4.99 35942.7 2008 7400.2 5.23 38729.8 2009 7440.1 5.23 38895.5 2009 vs 2000, % 97.0 123.0 120.0 2) Maize Years Area Yield Production 2000 730.2 2.75 2005.9 2001 729.5 2.96 2161.7 2002 816.0 3.08 2511.2 2003 912.7 3.44 3136.3 2004 991.1 3.46 3430.9 2005 1052.6 3.60 3787.1 2006 1033.1 3.73 3854.6 2007 1096.1 3.93 4303.2 2008 1140.2 4.01 4573.1 2009 1086.8 4.08 4431.8 2009 vs 2000, % 149.0 148.0 221.0 3) Cassava Years Area Yield Production 2000 237.6 8.3 1986.3 2001 292.3 12.0 3509.2 2002 337.0 13.2 4438.0 2003 371.9 14.3 5308.9 2004 388.6 15.0 5820.7 2005 425.5 15.8 6716.2 2006 475.2 16.4 7782.5 2007 495.5 16.5 8192.8 2008 554.0 16.8 9309.9 2009 508.8 16.8 8556.9 2009 vs 2000, % 214.0 202.0 431.0 4) White potato Years Area Yield Production 2010 254.3 6.33 1611.3 2011 244.6 6.76 1653.5 2012 237.7 7.16 1703.7 2013 219.6 7.17 1576.6 2014 201.8 7.49 1512.3 2015 185.3 7.78 1443.1 2016 181.2 8.06 1460.9 2017 175.5 8.19 1437.6 2018 162.0 8.18 1325.6 2019 146.4 8.24 1207.6 2009 vs 2000, % 58.0 130.0 79.0 5) Sugarcane Years Area Yield Production 2000 302.3 49.8 15044 2001 290.7 50.4 14657 2002 320.0 53.5 17120 2003 313.2 53.8 16855 2004 286.1 54.7 15649 2005 266.3 56.1 14949 2006 288.1 58.0 16719 2007 293.4 59.3 17397 2008 270.7 59.6 16145 2009 260.1 58.6 15246 2009 vs 2000, % 86.0 118.0 101.0 6) Groudnut Years Area Yield Production 2010 244.9 1.45 355.3 2011 244.6 1.48 363.1 2012 246.7 1.62 400.4 2013 243.8 1.67 406.2 2014 263.7 1.78 469.0 2015 269.6 1.81 489.3 2016 246.7 1.87 462.5 2017 254.5 2.00 510.0 2018 255.3 2.08 530.2 2019 249.2 2.11 525.1 2009 vs 2000, % 102.0 146.0 148 7) Soybean Years Area Yield Production 2000 124.1 1.20 149.3 2001 140.3 1.24 173.7 2002 158.6 1.30 205.6 2003 165.6 1.33 219.7 2004 183.8 1.34 245.9 2005 204.1 1.43 292.7 2006 185.6 1.39 258.1 2007 187.4 1.47 275.2 2008 192.1 1.39 267.6 2009 146.2 1.46 213.6 2009 vs 2000, % 118.0 121.7 143.0 8) Cotton Years Area Yield Production 2000 18.6 1.01 10.1 2001 27.7 1.21 12.1 2002 34.1 1.17 11.7 2003 27.8 1.26 12.6 2004 28.0 1.00 10.0 2005 25.8 1.30 33.5 2006 20.9 1.37 28.6 2007 12.1 1.33 16.1 2008 5.8 1.38 8.0 2009 8.0 1.25 10.0 2009 vs 2000, % 43.0 124.0 99.0 10) Tea Area Years Planted Harvested Yield Production 2000 87.7 70.3 4.48 314.7 2001 98.3 74.4 4.57 340.1 2002 109.3 77.2 5.49 423.6 2003 116.3 86.1 5.21 448.6 2004 120.8 92.4 5.56 513.8 2005 122.5 97.7 5.83 570.0 2006 122.9 102.1 6.36 648.9 2007 126.2 107.4 6.60 705.9 2008 125.6 108.8 6.86 746.2 2009 128.1 111.6 7.16 798.8 2009 vs 2000, % 147.0 159.0 160.0 254.0 11) Coffee Area Years Planted Harvested Yield Production 2000 561.9 477.0 1.68 802.5 2001 565.3 473.5 1.78 840.6 2002 522.2 492.5 1.42 699.5 2003 510.2 480.5 1.65 793.7 2004 496.8 479.1 1.75 836.0 2005 497.4 483.6 1.55 752.1 2006 497.0 483.2 2.04 985.3 2007 509.3 488.9 1.87 915.8 2008 530.9 500.2 2.11 1055.8 2009 537.0 504.1 2.07 1045.1 2009 vs 2000, % 96.0 106.0 123.0 130.0 12) Rubber Area Years Planted Harvested Yield Production 2000 412.0 231.5 1.26 290.8 2001 415.8 240.6 1.30 312.6 2002 428.8 243.3 1.23 298.2 2003 440.8 266.7 1.36 363.5 2004 454.1 300.8 1.39 419.0 2005 482.7 334.2 1.44 481.6 2006 522.2 356.4 1.56 555.4 2007 556.3 377.8 1.60 605.8 2008 631.5 399.1 1.65 660.0 2009 672.4 421.6 1.72 723.7 2009 vs 2000, % 163.0 182.0 137.0 249.0 13) Pepper Area Years Planted Harvested Yield Production 2000 27.9 14.9 2.63 39.2 2001 36.1 17.5 2.54 44.4 2002 47.9 25.1 1.86 46.8 2003 50.5 30.6 2.24 68.6 2004 50.8 36.6 2.01 73.4 2005 49.1 39.4 2.04 80.3 2006 48.5 40.5 1.95 78.9 2007 48.4 41.1 2.17 89.3 2008 50.0 42.4 2.33 98.3 2009 50.5 44.3 2.38 105.6 2009 vs 2000, % 181.0 297.0 90.0 269.0 14) Cashew Area Production Years Planted Harvested Yield 2000 195.6 145.8 0.46 67.6 2001 199.2 149.9 0.49 73.1 2002 240.2 173.2 0.75 128.8 2003 261.5 184.2 0.89 164.4 2004 295.9 204.3 1.00 204.7 2005 348.1 223.7 1.07 240.2 2006 401.8 276.8 0.99 273.1 2007 439.9 302.8 1.03 312.4 2008 406.7 321.1 0.96 308.5 2009 398.1 340.4 0.86 293.5 2009 vs 2000, % 204.0 233.0 187.0 433.0 15) Coconut Area Years Planted Harvested Yield Production 2000 161.3 140.0 6.32 884.8 2001 155.8 137.1 6.51 892.0 2002 140.4 126.0 7.26 915.2 2003 133.6 120.3 7.40 893.3 2004 133.1 120.7 7.95 960.1 2005 132.0 119.3 8.21 977.2 2006 133.9 119.7 8.35 1000.7 2007 135.3 119.3 8.69 1034.5 2008 138.3 121.1 9.05 1095.1 2009 139.3 121.5 9.28 1128.5 2009 vs 2000, % 0.86 87.0 147.0 127.0 17) Sedge Years Area Yield Production 2000 9.3 6.60 61.4 2001 9.7 6.65 64.5 2002 12.3 7.16 88.1 2003 14.0 6.84 95.8 2004 13.0 6.91 89.8 2005 12.5 6.44 80.5 2006 12.3 7.32 90.0 2007 13.8 7.16 98.8 2008 11.7 7.25 84.8 2009 10.3 7.35 75.7 2009 vs 2000, % 111.0 111.0 123.0 Table 2. GDP Structure 2000-2009 (%, Current prices) Năm Agriculture-Forestry-Fishery Industry-Construction Services 2000 24.53 36.73 38.74 2001 23.24 38.13 38.63 2002 23.03 38.49 38.48 2003 22.54 39.47 37.99 2004 21.81 40.21 37.98 2005 20.97 41.02 38.01 2006 20.04 41.54 38.06 2007 20.34 41.48 38.18 2008 22.21 39.84 37.95 2009 20.91 40.24 38.85 Table 3. Agricultural GDP Structure 2000-2009 (%, Current prices) Years Crops Production Livestock Services 2000 78.2 19.3 2.5 2001 77.9 19.6 2.5 2002 76.7 21.1 2.2 2003 75.4 22.4 2.2 2004 76.3 21.6 2.1 2005 73.5 24.7 1.8 2006 73.7 24.5 1.8 2007 73.9 24.4 1.7 2008 71.4 27.1 1.5 2009 71.4 26.9 1.7 Table 4. State budget expenditure for Science, Technology and Environment) Years State Budget Expenditure for Science & Technology and Environment Expenditure for Science & Technology and Environment in MARD Billions VND % of total Billions % of total 1996 530 0,78 69.5 13.1 1997 626 0,79 79.2 12.6 1998 794 1,14 80.5 10.1 1999 722 1,13 84.9 12.0 2000 1.350 2,00 123.4 9.1 2001 1.600 2,00 175.7 11.0 2002 1.810 2,13 171.8 9.5 2003 2.012 2,10 197.5 9.8 2004 2.296 1,99 219.8 9.6 2005 2584 0.98 244.0 9.4 2006 2540 0.82 Source: MOF, MPI and MARD Table 5. Investment in Agriculture (Agricultural Share in GDP 2009: 20,91%) Years % of total Investment 2000 13,85 2005 7,50 2008 6,45 2009 6,26 Nguyễn Đăng Vang, People newspaper online, 01/11/2010 Two groups of vegetables and fruits although not important for export but having high domestic demand and large production area, influencing social likelihood and having future market potentials. These crops are therefore classified in the high prioritised group. Comments (Keith): This is one argument – but another might be that these crops with already high investment in research are at the point of diminishing returns. Also it neglects the profitability motive – farmers simply will not produce if they are not making good profits – e.g. cashews and to some extent vegetables substituting rice? What is the impact of the increase in the area of paddy land irrigated – leading to 2 and 3 crops per year?