Bài giảng Economics - Chapter 27 Social Security

Chapter 27Social SecurityChapter OutlineTHE BASICSWHY DO WE NEED SOCIAL SECURITYSOCIAL SECURITY’S EFFECT ON THE ECONOMYWILL THE SYSTEM BE THERE FOR ME Social Security’s OriginThe 1935 Social Security ActPart of the FDR “New Deal”Intended to be a “third leg” of a retirement tripodSocial SecurityIndividual Savings Company PensionsHow to Fund Social SecurityEvery retirement system must be funded by using currently generated money to pay current retirees or use the balances of previously saved money to pay current retirees.Pay-as-you-go : a system where current workers’ taxes are used to pay pensions to current retireesFully-Funded: system where for every benefit dollar it is required to pay in the future there is an off-setting amount currently invested that is sufficient to pay off that dollarThe Current Funding System Social Security was, until 1982, a pay-as-you-go system.The baby-boom (1946-1964) created a problem for the system starting in 2010.Recognizing this, Congress created the Social Security Trust Fund in 1982.This makes Social Security a hybrid of a pay-as-you-go and fully funded system.$430 billion in spending, $530 in taxesThe Basics: TaxesSocial Security is funded with a payroll tax (taxes owed on what workers earn from their work) Employers and employees both pay an equal amount. The amount for Social Security is 6.2%* of payroll up to the Maximum Taxable Earnings (the maximum of taxable earnings subject to the payroll tax). *the tax is 7.65% minus the 1.45% Medicare tax The Basics: BenefitsPeople who have reached the retirement age (the age at which retirees get full benefits) are eligible for a benefit check.The amount of the benefit check is a factor (1 plus the number of dependents) times the Primary Insurance Amount (PIA, the amount single retirees receive in a monthly check if they retire at their retirement age).The PIA is a function of the Average Index of Monthly Earnings (AIME, the monthly average of the 35 highest earnings years adjusted for wage inflation)Changes to Social SecurityTax Rate1935 1%; 2001 7.65% (6.2% excluding Medicare)Maximum Taxable Earnings1935 $1000; 2000 $78,600 (at the 6.2% rate and unlimited at the 1.45% rate).Retirement Age1935 65 years of age; 2001 (Depends on the year of birth) 1938->65+2 months; 1939->65+4 months; 1940->65+6 months; 1941->65+8 months; 1942->65+10 months; 1943-1954->66; 1955->66+2 months; 1956->66+4 months; 1957->66+ 6 months; 1958->66+8 months; 1959->66+10 months; 1960 on 67Coverage1935 Old age; 2001 Old age + Medicare + Disability + SurvivorWhy Social Security is NeededExternalities market, left unregulated, will create impacts on people other than the buyer or sellerWorkers may make a decision to rely on welfare and not save. That decision affects taxpayers.People cannot overcome a poor decision not to save.Most decisions that adversely affect people can be changed. The decision not to save cannot be reversed (because you cannot go back and live your life over again.)Social Security’s Impact on the EconomyWork (lower)People retire earlier than they otherwise would have.People work less that they otherwise would have.Saving (in net lower)Asset Substitution Effect: government is saving for you, you will save less for yourselfInduced Retirement Effect: because people need to save more if they are going to retire earlier than they would have without Social Security.Bequest Effect: increases national savings because people save more so as to give larger gifts to their descendantsWho is the Program Good ForPeople who retired before 1980 received, on average, more than they would have in private alternatives.People who retired between 1980 and 2000 received ______ than they would have in private alternativesMore (if they were poor)Less (if they were wealthy)People who retire today will receive less than they would have in private alternatives.Using Present ValueTo compute the value of Social Security to an individual, a person wouldUse a reasonable low-risk real rate of interest (3-5%)Compute the present value of expected Social Security taxes to be paid.Compute the present value of expected Social Security benefits to be received.Subtract the present value of costs from the present value of benefits to get the net present value.A single worker beginning today can expect a negative net present value.Will the System Be There for Me?The Social Security Trust Funda fund set up in 1982 in order to hold government debt which will be sold as necessary when tax revenues are less than benefitsThe trust fund is not an asset but more accurately the ability for the government to reborrow money it had previously repaid.Why is Social Security in TroubleThe number of workers per retiree Was above 40 in 1940Fell to around 5 in the 1980s and 1990sWill eventually fall to under 3.This demographic problem resulted from the baby-boom (1946-1964).Estimates of Social Security’s BankruptcyAn organization is bankrupt if it has insufficient assets to pay off its obligations.Estimates suggest that Social Security will be “bankrupt” in the 2030s.“bankrupt” is not necessarily the correct term because the government could borrow to continue to pay benefits.Options of Saving Social Securityraising payroll taxes Raise the tax rateEliminate the maximum taxable earningsraising the retirement age furthercutting benefits with a Means Test those with high incomes or great wealth would get less of their PIA than those who depend on the monthly checkinvesting the trust fund in corporate stocks and bondscarving out some of the payroll tax for privatized individual accounts.