Bài giảng chương 12: Tổng cầu trong nền kinh tế mở

Tài liệu Bài giảng chương 12: Tổng cầu trong nền kinh tế mở: 1kinh t v mô bn th nm N. Gregory Mankiw Bài ging ca Phm Th Anh pham.theanh@yahoo.com (dch và sa theo bài ging ca Ron Cronovich)m ac ro © 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved CHNG 12 Tng Cu trong Nn Kinh t M CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 1 M c tiêu c a ch ng           !"#$%&'()  # *(+  ,' -!./01/% 2!"013  45627  CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 2 Mô hình Mundell-Fleming  8%13$',9  !:()3;5<%  =>  ?  @ <A,3,56"/ 156B  C D C D C D        = − + + + ,1E ?./01/'F' ?(0=#, G1H!3G# CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 3 ng IS*: Cân bng trên th tr ng hàng hoá 456...

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1kinh t v mô bn th nm N. Gregory Mankiw Bài ging ca Phm Th Anh pham.theanh@yahoo.com (dch và sa theo bài ging ca Ron Cronovich)m ac ro © 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved CHNG 12 Tng Cu trong Nn Kinh t M CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 1 M c tiêu c a ch ng           !"#$%&'()  # *(+  ,' -!./01/% 2!"013  45627  CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 2 Mô hình Mundell-Fleming  8%13$',9  !:()3;5<%  =>  ?  @ <A,3,56"/ 156B  C D C D C D        = − + + + ,1E ?./01/'F' ?(0=#, G1H!3G# CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 3 ng IS*: Cân bng trên th tr ng hàng hoá 456B 15I!J G KB+13> LF'&'1G0   B C D C D C D        = − + + +  ↓  ↑  ↑ CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 4 ng LM*: Cân bng trên th tr ng tin t 456B  15I!J G K B+13  EM1K<! !: G K  + 13N OE G/ ,3 &' "   <A7!: N<+; >  B C N D   = CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 5 Cân bng trong mô hình Mundell-Fleming  B C N D   =  B C D C D C D        = − + + + t giá h i oái cân b ng mc thu nh p cân b ng 2CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 6 T giá th ni & c nh  P,#0     N 15I QRQ'1G1;Q/K!: '12>  5I =N ,#0     N  ",5H '</ =#= G K/S/13,5:>  T 6U'*S SR/V (/"/N#!"5H = ,5:  ",#0./01/% 2N('1E ",#0./01/ 013> CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 7 Chính sách tài khoá trong h thng t giá hi oái c nh  C N D   = C D C D C D        = − + + + W W W   W  X  X P=<+Y/,3"&' N () ,G"/ " Z N 3; B ('Q%> [$% " ∆ \]N∆ ?] CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 8 Bài hc v chính sách tài khoá  P, G   !:5<% ; =NV(/"/ 0^ E %Z " '128_ `)>  a) +/b c 1E @V(/"/ +/175<A/ " Z *(+> c    @V(/"/ +/S+d,e <A/ " . /Z> CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 9 Chính sách tin t trong h thng t giá hi oái th ni  C N D   = C D C D C D        = − + + + W W W   W  X X   X )'Z 3; 156B ('Q%<!  Q%Z1;Qf =  [$% " ∆ g]N∆ \] CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 10 Bài hc v chính sách tin t  @V(/#/1G1(% 5I<A //1G1 GChD"Q7 &'27 1E ↑  ↓  ↑  ↑   ↑  ↓  ↑  ↑  @V(/# ,G " Z2 7&':NE " Z7!"/ ,5:C% 7!"=D> _!-N()'Z-Q!"!# " , 5:1iF'!:()% (U-Q!"!# " 5:"> CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 11 Chính sách th ng mi trong ch  t giá th ni C N D   = C D C D C D        = − + + +  W W W   W  X  X P=<+Y/,3"&' N $'h== "  % -QdNZS+d ,eN !"3; B (' Q%> [$% " ∆ \]N∆ ?] 3CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 12 Bài hc v chính sách th ng m i  j#= -Qd; " %  f5H =>  h^  12N 5E V=1G5H = H k j#=5H = " % -Qd k () / &'. / " % S+d l=1G5H =E F' " Va IVm5H =b H>n  o= -Qd10!: G(0 h"f ; E ;  , !# " , G(0 "G13'(%S+ h ""N  = "  +1!# " , !)(%S+"S+d> _!-N= -Qd+<=,!# " Z2 (0 !# " ,> Pi#HN= -Qde=,'b() 3; !)bN ,'+#Q= 6> CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 13 T giá hi oái c nh  P,#0./01/013N  ",5H&' G5: (p(" 'h</G# +=#= G K /13,5:>  P,  N  " ,5H3;156B   71; = K./1*  o#0"013./01/'F'> P,"=N/% =N./0 1/)E;'12- V./ 01/'F'013> CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 14 Chính sách tài khoá trong h thng t giá hi oái c nh  W W W   W  X  q ,r ',' (N' r('  SQ'(s  ,'(  > [$% " ∆ ?]N∆ \] X X   P Q r, ,(N   ,' <' ( (  (,, N s, '( ( '(r(B ,> P,#0./% 2NV(/"/ #$% ,!# '12(% 5I> P,#0./0 13NV(/"/ #$% ,!#'12 (% 5I> CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 15 Chính sách tin t trong h thng t giá hi oái c nh X   t, '(  s (r B ,',   >  W W   W  W PQ, !  r'  N   ,' <' ( < (,, N s,  ( ' (r(B <' r> [$% " ∆ ?]N∆ ?] P,#0./%2N V#,+#$% , !#'12(% 5I> P,#0./013N ;(ufV# 1;'12(% 5I> CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 16 Chính sách th ng mi trong h thng t giá hi oái c nh  W W W   W  X  t, (, Q,( Q(Qs',Q, ((,   > v ( ( ∆ ?]N∆ \] X X   P Q r, ,(N   ,' <' ( (  (,, N s, '( ( '(r(B ,> P,1G./%2N!# =-Qd% 51 h  > P,1G./013N!# =-Qd " Z !"  > PN IV15I" 1 !:#=&' 5:/N<!V(/" 1H7;m7" =('7"G> CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 17 M-F: Tóm tt các hiu ng chính sách ↑]↑]↑]=-Qd ]]]↑↓↑ ,G# ]]↑↓↑] ,G"/   @V(/ /1G1 013%2 =1G./01/ 4CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 18 S chênh lch lãi sut o' w=(' E;/ B  ,&,1h,5m5: v&,S^I&'561!'5:1E  56!'7 *(+'H1;<^1xQ  =,&,">  ./Y!9'12 ./&' G5:15IY!9% N 561!'Q%,% G K *(+'H A <^1xQ() +/Y!956 !'> CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 19 S chênh lch lãi sut trong mô hình M-F ,1E θ " Q75,&,> P'<;K<;y !"/Q5H, B !" B C N D   = + θ C D C D C D        = − + + + +θ   θ= + CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 20 Hiu ng c a s gia tng θ X   B 3,/N <! ↑ θ  ↑  ↓  W W W   W  B 3Q%N<! ↑ θ  ↑  ↓Cz DN !-  Q%ZA  Qf = <A3,56 #> [$% " ∆ g]N∆ \] X  X X CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 21  )% (U&' "y+ )'Z,&, G5:h()% (U ./15IY!9 " !#1i 5:1ER +Q{H> @Uw ()% (U./Y!9 " !#)(y>  )'Z&' S%,'E()'Z&'  C6() +/D - V :H(!:()% (U&' C ZD> Hiu ng c a s gia tng θ CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 22 T i sao thu nh p có th không tng   ",5HE;0xZ h() +/G#<A/%    ) +/G#E; " Z/" -Qd1&1; " Z K/ C1"(J " % )D  56^E;Q%K10!:() 'Z,&, | G/1G,(J3;156 B (',/> CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 23 Tình hung: Kh ng hong ng Peso c a Mexico 10 15 20 25 30 35 7/10/94 8/29/94 10/18/94 12/7/94 1/26/95 3/17/95 5/6/95 U. S. Ce n ts pe r M e x ic a n Pe s o 5CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 24 10 15 20 25 30 35 7/10/94 8/29/94 10/18/94 12/7/94 1/26/95 3/17/95 5/6/95 U. S. Ce n ts pe r M e x ic a n Pe s o Tình hung: Kh ng hong ng Peso c a Mexico CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 25 Khng hong ng Peso không làm h i Mexico  o"/F, 1xH10!:   S k _'#QF +' k o",Z '#QQ/(%9 <:F  S  P"(% SV 1i1 '% k 4*%51# 5,V&' ",# F CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 26 Tìm hiu cuc kh ng hong j"17Z W}}]N S " G13' 1; +Q{1755:"> P,Z W}}~Ny<V,31* " Z,&,Cθ D S c  2- @'Q'( c !f / (/Ku !"17K !f 20  0 / oPFZ *(+ 7,Z  W}}~A Zh = Q/ F> C!- ∆B\]D CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 27 Tìm hiu cuc kh ng hong  ()#" (KRQ% / 1iQ (>  oP S fK'!:/"17 55:",A9(J1;/,3 1iQ (% N !-9 '!"1iQ (!"</,' 1 'A a01€b./1iQ (>  " 15I1"1eoP S Q%E1& 5I),> o9E CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 28 D tr ôla c a NHT Mexico WXzW}}‚ƒƒƒƒƒƒ „X…. W†z…zW}}~ƒƒƒƒƒƒ „W†. WzWXzW}}~ƒƒƒƒƒ „}. W‡zWXzW}}~ƒƒƒƒ „†. WXzW ƒƒƒƒƒƒ X . W z zW ƒƒƒƒƒƒ W . WzWXzW ƒƒƒƒƒ  . W zWXzW ƒƒƒƒ  . Trong nm 1994, NHT Mexico ã che giu thc t là d tr ã thâm ht. CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 29  thm ho   X]zWX  SQ//1iQ (W‚ˆ C013 =X‡ ( '! X} (D  @/"175<3(0   ƒ!"-+,AoPxM1' =#),ƒ  ↑θN/"175/="(%  S!" ,U!0 S>  XXzWX ),&'oP)()1*> o9<*<1G./013!"%2 >  G7('1EN %  ‚]ˆ> 6CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 30 Gói cu tr  W}}‡F ‰  -Q GQ'Vf ,3/‡].„A 1% <%!0!' VQ& S>  4"UQQf = e!"  SN " % ,&,>  ' GG(/,7 ,9, Z W}}‡N S1*<x17Qf = J('&%> CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 31 Khng hong ông Nam Á -1,2% (1996-97)-25,6%-48,3%Thailand -6,8%-43,8%-36,4%Malaysia -4,3%-18,2%-12,0%Japan -0,1%-36,0%-15,6%Singapore ----19,7%-14,6%Taiwan 2,3%2,7%---U.S. -7,3%-21,9%-47,5%S. Korea -16,2%-32,6%-59,4%Indonesia % thay i GDP danh ngha 1997-98 % thay i th trng chng khoán t 7/97 n 1/98 % thay i t giá t 7/97 n 1/98 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 32 T giá th ni và c nh -Q -&G./%2  QRQ(ufV(/#1;  12/ f/ CZ,52 13N = Q/+QD -Q -&G./013  ,/<+2N " /'3$0 y"H  xhV(/#A ,/5 m'Z,5#‰( = Q/ CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 33 Mundell-Fleming và  ng AD  P,5:1 U'1*S SR  !: K/013>4;S )156t_N6 1 U'S SR/1G&'()'12 `,   >  @U'!/Q5H,  5(' C `717&'5H"U'E; ! 5:=" (0&' <! !" ε '12^ 013>D C D C N D   =B C D C D C D C D        = − + + +B CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 34 Y Y! Xây dng  ng AD  ε   IS* LM*(P )LM*(P!) AD P P! Y! Y ε! ε P=('t_E1G 0  ↑  ↓Cz D   3,/  ↑ε  ↓  ↓ CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 35 T ngn h n n dài h n LM*(P ) ε ε!  (J S+#(KRQ " % /> P 6'N  (J % S0N "  Cz D↑ ε ↓  ↑  ↑ P SRASW W W  ε   IS* AD   LRAS LM*(P!) P! SRASX <W  N  7CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 36 Ln: gia nh và óng  5: k <'i F k " Q%1EŠM " >  G :  "A ' /)1E‰!" >  ‹ SR() ,G# c 805 G1EN ∆ \] ↓  ↑ C h^ D c 805 G  N ∆ \] ↓ε  ↑ C h^ D CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 37 Tóm tt ch ng W>      G >    ",5:  E;O,'/V(/!"U(0/1G 5"1-Q!"./01/ X> @V(/"/  E%51-Q,1G. /013N5E%5, 1G./%2> CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 38 Tóm tt ch ng ‚> @V(/#  E%51-Q5:1G./ %2>  _5:1G./013NV(/# E%51(% 5I> ~> ) # *(+  i=/"1757 G K 5,&,x "(%&' G 5:>  )'Z&'Q75,&," "  Z *(+,5:!" ,'() +/ &'1iG#> CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 39 Tóm tt ch ng ‡> P./013!"./%2  P,1G./013NV(/# E;15I(uf/ f1V/ "!#,()213&'./0 1/>  P./01/013 " % V<+2 ,/'3$0>

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