Bài giảng Business Driven Technology - Business plug-in B12 - Global Trends

BUSINESS PLUG-IN B12Global Trends LEARNING OUTCOMESIdentify the trends that will have the greatest impact on future businessIdentify the technologies that will have the greatest impact on future businessExplain why understanding trends and new technologies can help an organization prepare for the futureIntroductionObtaining a broad view of emerging trends and new technologies as they relate to business can help an organization anticipate and prepare for the futureOrganizations that can most effectively grasp the deep currents of technological evolution can use their knowledge to protect themselves against sudden and fatal technological obsolescenceReasons to Watch TrendsTrend analysis – the examination of a trend to identify its nature, causes, speed of development, and potential impactsTrend monitoring – trends viewed as particularly important in a specific community, industry, or sector are carefully monitored, watched, and reported to key decision makersTrend projection – when numerical data are available, a trend can be plotted to display changes through time and into the futureReasons to Watch TrendsComputer simulation – complex systems can be modeled by means of mathematical equations and different scenarios can be run against the model to determine “what if” analysisHistorical analysis – historical events are studied to anticipate the outcome of current developmentsReasons to Watch TrendsTrends Shaping Our FutureThe following trends have the potential to change our world, our future, and our lives:World’s population will double in the next 40 yearsPeople in developed countries are living longerGrowth in information industries is creating a knowledge-dependent global societyThe global economy is becoming more integratedThe economy and society are dominated by technologyPace of technological innovation is increasingTime is becoming one of the most precious commoditiesTHE WORLD’S POPULATION WILL DOUBLE OVER THE NEXT 40 YEARSCountries expected to have the largest population increasesPalestinian Territory – 217% increaseNiger – 205% Yemen – 168% Angola – 162% Democratic Republic of the Congo – 161%Uganda – 133%THE WORLD’S POPULATION WILL DOUBLE OVER THE NEXT 40 YEARSIn contrast, developed and industrialized countries are expected to see fertility rates decrease below population replacement levels, leading to significant declines in populationTHE WORLD’S POPULATION WILL DOUBLE OVER THE NEXT 40 YEARSPotential business impactGlobal agriculture will be required to supply as much food as has been produced during all of human history to meet needs over the next 40 yearsDeveloped nations will find that retirees will have to remain on the job to remain competitive Developed nations will begin to increase immigration limitsPEOPLE IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ARE LIVING LONGEROn average, each generation in the United States lives three years longer than the previousAn 80-year-old in 1950 could expect to live 6.5 years longer todayPEOPLE IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ARE LIVING LONGERPotential business impactGlobal demand for elderly products and services will grow quickly in the coming decadesThe cost of health care is destined to skyrocketPharmaceutical companies will be pushed for advances in geriatric medicineTHE GROWTH IN INFORMATION INDUSTRIES IS CREATING A KNOWLEDGE-DEPENDENT GLOBAL SOCIETY90% of American management personnel will be knowledge workers by 2008A typical large organization in 2010 will have fewer than half the management levels of its counterpart in 1990, and about 1/3 the number of managersTHE GROWTH IN INFORMATION INDUSTRIES IS CREATING A KNOWLEDGE-DEPENDENT GLOBAL SOCIETYPotential business impactTop managers must be computer-literate to retain their jobs and achieve successKnowledge workers are generally higher paid and their proliferation is increasing overall prosperityEntry-level and unskilled positions are requiring a growing level of educationInformation now flows from front-office workers to higher management for analysisDownsizing, restructuring, reorganization, outsourcing, and layoffs will continueTHE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS BECOMING MORE INTEGRATEDInternational outsourcing is on the riseThe European Union has relaxed its borders and capital controlsInternet users numbered about 500 million worldwide in 2003, 1 billion in 2005, and are growing by 6 % monthlyTHE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS BECOMING MORE INTEGRATEDPotential business impactDemand for personnel in distant countries will increase the need for foreign language training and employee incentives suited to other culturesEbusiness and the Internet will reduce the cost of doing businessThe Internet will allow small companies to compete with worldwide giants with relatively little investmentTHE ECONOMY AND SOCIETY ARE DOMINATED BY TECHNOLOGYComputers are becoming a part of our environmentBy 2007, artificial intelligence and expert systems will help most companies and government agencies assimilate data and solve problems beyond the range of today’s computersPersonal robots will appear in the home by 2010THE ECONOMY AND SOCIETY ARE DOMINATED BY TECHNOLOGYPotential business impactNew technologies provide dozens of new opportunities to create businesses and jobsAutomation will continue to decrease the cost of products and services, making it possible to reduce prices while improving profitsDemand for scientists, engineers, and technicians will continue to growPACE OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION IS INCREASINGMedical knowledge is doubling every eight years50% of what students learn in their freshman year of college is obsolete, revised, or taken for granted by their senior yearAll of today’s technical knowledge will represent only 1 percent of the knowledge that will be available in 2050PACE OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION IS INCREASINGPotential business impactShortened time-to-market for products and servicesTighter competition based on new technologiesTIME IS BECOMING ONE OF THE WORLD’S MOST PRECIOUS COMMODITIESU.S. workers spend 10% more time on the job than they did a decade agoEuropean executives and nonunionized workers face the same trendThis high-pressured environment is increasing the need for any product or service that saves time or simplifies lifeTIME IS BECOMING ONE OF THE WORLD’S MOST PRECIOUS COMMODITIESPotential business impactCompanies must take an active role in helping their employees balance their work and livesStress-related problems affecting employee morale and wellness will continue to growUse of the Internet will continue to grow as the time to perform activities, such as shopping at a mall, evaporatesTechnologies Shaping Our FutureThe following technologies have the potential to change our world, our future, and our lives:Digital inkDigital paperTelelivingAlternative energy sourcesAutonomic computingDIGITAL INKDigital ink (or electronic ink) – refers to technology that digitally represents handwriting in its natural formDIGITAL INKPotential business impactDigital ink can be used in many applications:Point-of-sale signsNext generation displays in mobile devices and PDAsThin, portable electronic books and newspapersRadioPaper – dynamic high-resolution electronic display that combines a paperlike reading experience with the ability to access information anytime, anywhereDIGITAL PAPERDigital paper (or electronic paper) – any paper that is optimized for any type of digital printingThe major difference between paper produced from a tree and paper produced in a laboratory is that information on a digital paper sheet can be altered thousands of times and not degrade over timeDIGITAL PAPERPotential business impactPaperlike displays will replace newspapers, magazines, and booksReusable paper is an environmentally sound ideaTELELIVINGTeleliving – refers to using information devices and the Internet to conduct all aspects of life seamlesslyIncludes shopping, working, learning, playing, healing, and even prayingEach year, four billion chips are embedded in everything from coffee makers to CadillacsTELELIVINGPotential business impactIn the future, people will move through a constant stream of information summoned at the touch of a fingerVirtual assistant (VA) – a small program stored on a PC or portable device that monitors e-mails, faxes, messages, and phone calls. VAs will mimic real assistants helping individuals solve problemsRobotic salespeople will take on human appearances and perform all tasks associated with a sales jobALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCESWind, geothermal, hydroelectric, solar, and other alternative energy sources will account for 30 percent of all energy useBy 2010 nuclear plants will supply 16% of Russia and eastern Europe’s energyALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCESPotential business impactChina, Asia, India, South America, and Russia are modernizing their economies, which increases their needs for energyCost of alternative energy sources is decreasingDeregulation of the energy industry is expected to increase innovation and foster a wide variety of new energy sourcesOil will remain the world’s most important energy sourceAUTONOMIC COMPUTINGAutonomic computing – a self-managing computing model named after, and patterned on, the human body’s autonomic nervous systemLevel 1: BasicLevel 2: ManagedLevel 3: PredictiveLevel 4: AdaptiveLevel 5: AutonomicAUTONOMIC COMPUTINGPotential business impactAutonomic computing will be used in complex IT infrastructures for security, storage, network management, and redundancy/failover Computers will monitor components and fine-tune workflowsAutonomic computers will be able to “self-heal”Autonomic computers will be able to “self-protect”CLOSING CASE ONE Autonomic RailwaysCanadian Pacific Railway (CPR) is one of the largest railway systems in North America with more than 14,000 miles of rail line in Canada and the United States CPR collaborated with IBM to deliver solutions that are both automated (they can control a defined process without human intervention) and autonomic (they can sense and respond to conditions in accordance with business policies)CLOSING CASE ONE QUESTIONSWhich of the trends shaping our future discussed in this plug-in will have the greatest impact on CPR’s business?Which of the trends will have the least impact on CPR’s business?How are the functions of autonomic computing providing CPR with a competitive advantage?How can CPR take advantage of other technological advances to improve security?CLOSING CASE TWOWireless ProgressionProgressive Corporation is the fourth-largest automobile insurer in the Untied States with more than 8 million policyholders and net premiums of $6.1 billionProgressive offers wireless Web access to holders of its auto insurance policies, a move that analysts have said fits the company’s reputation as a technology leader in the insurance industry and its emphasis on customer serviceCLOSING CASE TWO QUESTIONSWhich of the trends shaping our future discussed in this plug-in will have the greatest impact on Progressive’s business?Which of the trends will have the least impact on Progressive’s business?What other forms of advanced technology would you expect Progressive to deploy in the near future?